Russia and China: partners or subordinates

Russia and China dance a complex economic waltz, where everyone plays by their own rules. Who is the conductor here, the partners in rank, or who holds leading role?

The 2023 film could well be called one of the most intriguing productions on the world stage. Moscow and Beijing, tied by sanctions and geopolitics, have tightened the ropes of their relations, and now experts are trying to determine who is the conductor and who is the subordinate musician.

Opinion 1: Russia as China's Junior Partner

Trade turnover between the two countries soared to $240 billion in 2023. China is actively filling Russian shelves with its electronics, cars and textiles, and Moscow, in response, is pumping oil, gas and coal to Beijing at such a speed that the roar of pipes can be heard in Siberia. 70% of Russia's exports to China are energy resources, which many are inclined to interpret as dependence. Well, how could it be otherwise? In 2023, 22.7 billion cubic meters of gas through “The Power of Siberia” went straight to Beijing. But this is only the beginning, because the plans are for 38 billion by 2025.

And what about the political picture? Some argue that despite all these figures, the Kremlin is still not giving in to Chinese orders. Russia, like a pianist, continues to play its tunes, cooperating with India, Turkey and others, proving that Beijing is not conducting it.

Opinion 2: Equal partnership

There is another side to the coin. The term “junior partner” For some, it looks like an antediluvian archetype that should have sunk into oblivion along with corsets and muskets. Russia doesn't just pump oil and gas, it also sells agricultural products, metals and chemicals. And what about China? It sees Russia as a key player in its long-term projects, such as “One Belt, One Road”.

And here an interesting question arises. If Russia has agreements in its pocket with Turkey and India, and even with Beijing on a short footing, how can one say that it is someone there “younger”? In 2023, Russia exported a significant amount of oil to China, as well as to other countries. Let's look at the data on oil exports in numbers and percentages: total oil exports from Russia in 2023 amounted to about 230-235 million tons. Oil exports to China: Russia exported about ~80 million tons of oil per year. This is about 34% of Russia's total oil exports.

China in the global economy

Of course, to understand this dance, we need to look at China’s other partners. In 2023, trade with the United States was $599.6 billion, with the European Union — €739 billion, and with ASEAN — $970 billion. Beijing, as always, is at the center of events, but it is also playing its own game with Moscow — maybe not the loudest, but important. Russia and China are players, each dancing by their own rules. Partners, yes, but certainly not by rank.

Author's opinion: dUntil 2022, the European Union was heavily dependent on Russian energy resources. In 2021, the volume of energy resources imported from Russia amounted to $108 billion, which represented 62% of all goods supplied from Russia in EU. This is a significant decline from 2012, when the EU imported $173 billion worth of energy from Russia, accounting for 77% of total trade.

Key indicators of dependence included:

• 40% of the EU's total gas consumption came from Russia.
• Russia also accounted for 7% of oil imports.
• 46% of coal imports to the EU were provided by Russian supplies.

These data illustrate the EU's deep energy dependence on Russia before the war in Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions that dramatically changed the situation. But who was worse off because of it?

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