Olive Oil: How Prices Will Change This Winter

Global production is showing signs of recovery, with wholesale olive oil prices starting to decline from their peak last winter and spring 2024.

In August, inflation rose by 3%, and the price of olive oil increased by 49.1%. The main question is how the price of “green gold” will change in winter, and Initial estimates indicate a decline.

Reduced stocks at the end of the 2023/24 marketing season are expected to be sufficient to ensure uninterrupted supply fresh olive oil from the new harvest. The harvest will begin in late September and early October.

Factors Affecting Prices
Unless the growing season is disrupted by unexpected weather conditions, prices are expected to decline, especially once oil mills, retailers and packaging industry tanks are replenished after December 2024.

The main factor determining the price of olive oil will be consumption. In the last two trading seasons, due to the sharp rise in prices, a significant portion of consumers (30 to 40%) switched to other types of oil or even limited their consumption of olive oil.

The estimated production of olive oil for the 2024/25 harvest could reach 3,000 or even 3,200 tons globally, significantly higher than in 2023/24, when production did not exceed 2,500 tons.

Another critical factor is production.
It is expected that this winter Olive oil production will increase compared to last year. Our country has recorded one of its lowest production volumes ever, barely approaching 150,000 tons. Olive producers say olive oil production this winter will be higher than last year, but not at the levels previously predicted at around 250,000 tons.

Prices fall even below 10 euros
The Director General of the Greek Olive Oil Standardization Association, Giorgos Oikonomou, stressed (Ertnews) that “the quantity we expect is around 230,000 tons, which is a significant increase compared to last year, which is expected to impact prices at the producer level.”

According to available data, production in southern European countries is expected to exceed last year's by 50-100% this year, which will lead to lower prices. According to estimates by food retail executives, prices could fall from 12 to 13 euros in a reasonable period.

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