Greece: Threat of Demographic Collapse (Video)

By 2070, Greece's population could shrink by a quarter – this is the harsh reality.

Declining birth rates and mass emigration – the main reasons why the trend is unlikely to change in the coming years. The government is frantically looking for a solution to the problem, faced with a situation that could affect the social and economic structure of the country – a declining population.

Six years after Greece emerged from bailout programs, officially ending a painful economic crisis, The country is facing a new emergency that could affect its social and economic structure – population decline.

According to experts, by 2070 the population of Greece could decrease by 25%, which is significantly higher than the average for the European Union, which is only 4%. In 2022, the country registered fewer than 77,000 births, the lowest figure in nearly a century. The death rate has nearly doubled. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis warns:

“Demographic collapse is literally becoming an existential problem for our future.”

The latest census data from 2021 shows a 3.1% decline in Greece's overall population in just ten years. The country now has just over 10 million people, states euronews.

It was certainly a difficult decade due to the economic crisis that Greece experienced. About half a million Greeks, especially the young and educated, left the country in search of a better life. And those who remain continue to face difficulties in restoring the labor market, which is characterized by a fairly high level of unemployment and low wages. That is, Starting a family and building a career remain challenging tasks.

Nikos Vettas, a Greek economist, points out the economic consequences of this demographic shift, which is putting additional pressure on Greece's pension system and healthcare:

“The main problem is that you will have fewer people working. And now those people will have to support a large number of elderly people.”

However, he adds that some measures can be taken to mitigate the problem:

“You have to increase the productivity of the country. You have to introduce technology. You have to encourage immigration, especially into high-productivity jobs.”

In order to solve the demographic problem, recognizing its relevance, the Greek government in 2023 created the first ever special Ministry of Social Cohesion and Family. Led by Sophia Zaharaki, it introduced a number of measures, including tax breaks and increased state benefits for newbornsin the hope of stimulating an increase in the birth rate.

While acknowledging that this is far from being enough to solve the problem, Zacharaki stresses that it is a step in the right direction to prevent “the most serious threat Greece faces.”

Greece's population will shrink by 2.5 million by 2050, told previously our publication. The dramatic demographic problem has come to the fore in the country, the consequences of which are reflected in many important aspects – economic, social, political. According to experts, over the next 27 years the population of Greece will sharply decrease by two and a half million people, and we will become a country of old people. These are the data of a study by the Laboratory of Demographic and Social Analysis of the University of Thessaly, conducted by Mr. Viron Kotzamanis, professor of demography and scientific director of the research project of the Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (ELIDEK) “Demographic Proposals for Research and Practice in Greece”.

What is happening and what is expected to happen in Greece if drastic measures are not taken? According to the latest data ELSTATThe 2021 census, the results of which were released last December, showed that the country's legal population was 9,716,889, up from 9,904,286 in 2011. That is, The country's population decreased by 187,397 citizens, or 1.9%.

Researchers studied six different scenarios for the evolution of the Greek population up to 2050. Based on the results, regardless of the scenario, the decline in the permanent population over the next 35 years is expected to be continuous. Only the rate of population decline varies depending on the scenario, as does the population distribution by age and gender. The study notes that by 2035, the country's population will fluctuate between 9.5 and 10.4 million people. Recall that in 2015, it was 10.9 million people.

This means a population decline of between 450,000 and 1.4 million in absolute terms compared to 2015 (4.1% to 12.4%). Even more ominous forecasts are presented for 2050. By then, the country’s population is expected to have declined by 8.3-10 million permanent residents. This implies a population decline of between 800,000 and 2.5 million permanent residents in absolute terms compared to 2016, or 7.3%-23.4%.

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