Is peace possible in Ukraine this fall?

Burning Volchansk

In recent days, talks about negotiations to end the war in Ukraine have intensified again. Putin, in particular, stated this.

Then Zelensky confirmed that he would like to see Russia at the second peace summit, and today he appealed to Western countries with a request to “make it so” that the war ends this fall.

However, similar statements have been made before, but they have not led to any results. But if we look at the situation globally, under what options is it possible to end the war in Ukraine?

There are three scenarios

The first is the complete defeat of one of the parties, when it will be forced to accept the conditions dictated by the winner. This option cannot be ruled out 100% (for example, in the event of the beginning of destabilization in society and the collapse of the army in one of the warring countries), but for now it seems unlikely.

The second is global agreements in the triangle Ukraine-West-Russia, which would settle the entire spectrum of contradictions between the parties and lead to the conclusion of a full-fledged peace treaty between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, and, possibly, a new security treaty in Europe. This option is also, to put it mildly, not very likely in the foreseeable future. At least, if there are no cardinal political changes in Ukraine, Russia or the West.

The third option, and the only real option for ending the war in the near future, is to stop the fighting along the front line. This scenario has its supporters and opponents, both in Ukraine, and in Russia, and in the West (we have already cited their arguments many times). But this, we note once again, is the only option at the moment when the war can be stopped quickly.

What would it take for this scenario to come to fruition in practice?

Directly or indirectly, four forces are involved in the war: Ukraine, Russia, the global West (supporting Ukraine), the global South (helping Russia bypass sanctions). And then we solve the equation:

1. Of these four forces, the global South is clearly in favor of ending the war as quickly as possible.
2. Ukraine and the West are against. They officially adhere to the “Zelensky peace formula”, which provides for the withdrawal of Russian troops to the 1991 borders.
3. Putin, in June, when he announced his “peace proposals,” also essentially spoke out against this option, as he demanded the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from four regions as a condition for a ceasefire.

It is true that there are various rumors that the real position of the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and the West is not so categorical. But so far there is no confirmation of these rumors. Thus, in order for the end of the war along the front line to become a reality, a change in the position of its participants is necessary. And there are two scenarios here.

First – if the West agrees to this option. In this case, it can join forces with the global South to put pressure on both warring parties in order to stop the war along the front line. And even if both Kyiv and Moscow are against it, given the unified position of the rest of the world, they will not be able to “dodge”. And most likely, they will not even try to “dodge”, but will join the negotiation process, trying to get the best conditions for themselves.

Second – if both Ukraine and Russia come to the need to stop the war along the front line. Russia will not have any particular difficulties here – its friendly countries will support this option. Regarding the position of the West, there is a question – will it support Kyiv's intentions to agree to stop the war. Or will it start to dissuade, as it was during the Istanbul Agreements. But now there is a high probability that it will support. Since, unlike in the spring of 2022, confidence in the possibility of inflicting a complete military defeat on Russia is no longer so strong, but there is more and more fear of the war in Ukraine escalating into World War III.

However, these are all theoretical calculations. There is little indication yet that either side is ready to change its position on stopping the fighting along the front line, which, judging by Putin's statements, has become unlikely after the Ukrainian Armed Forces' offensive in the Kursk region. But, let us repeat, of all the options for ending the war as soon as possible, this is the only realistic one.

The author's opinion may not reflect the opinion of the editors.

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