WP: Secret Ceasefire Talks and Offensive in Kursk Region

The Washington Post reports that negotiations on a partial ceasefire have been disrupted due to the Ukrainian Armed Forces' offensive in Kursk region.

According to information editionsthey were conducted secretly and the next round of the historic agreement was supposed to take place in the Qatari capital Doha this month. However, WP writes, Ukraine's offensive in Kursk region has disrupted the negotiations with Russia. The talks focused on ending attacks on energy and energy infrastructure on both sides.journalists note. The publication cites diplomats familiar with the course of negotiations

The article said the indirect talks, in which the Qataris acted as mediators and met separately with Ukrainian and Russian delegations, were disrupted by Ukraine's surprise invasion of Russia's western Kursk region last week.

There was no information about a possible agreement and a planned summit..The Washington Post recalls that more than a year Russia has been targeting Ukraine's power grid with drones and cruise missiles, causing rolling blackouts across the country due to damage to power plants.

Ukraine, in turn, has targeted Russian oil facilities with long-range drone strikes that have set refineries, oil depots and storage tanks ablaze, cutting Russia's oil refining by about 15% and raising gas prices worldwide. The publication notes:

“The willingness to join the talks signals some progress for both countries, at least on a limited cease-fire. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Kiev will consider a full cease-fire only if Russia first withdraws all its troops from Ukrainian soil, including the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014. Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded that Ukraine first hand over four Ukrainian regions, including territories that Russian forces do not occupy but that the Kremlin has declared part of Russia.”

A meeting with Qatari officials was postponed after Ukraine invaded Russia. Moscow's delegation called it an “escalation,” a diplomatic source said, adding that Kyiv “did not warn Doha about its cross-border offensive.” Russia “did not cancel the talks, they said, 'Give us time,'” the diplomat said.

The interlocutor also notes that Ukraine still wanted to send its delegation to Doha, but Qatar refused, as it sees no benefit in a unilateral meeting. A diplomat familiar with the talks said that Qatar has been discussing a moratorium on energy strikes with Kiev and Moscow for the past two months. He said the parties had agreed on a summit in Doha, with only minor details remaining to be ironed out.

“After Kursk, the Russians backed down,” said another source familiar with the talks. The Russian source, who has close ties to Russian diplomats, made it clear that “Putin will not be inclined to make a deal after the Kursk offensive.” He reportedly noted: “You know that our Russian leadership usually does not compromise under pressure.”

In response to a request from The Washington Post, the Ukrainian President's Office said that the Doha summit had been postponed “due to the situation in the Middle East,” but that it would take place via videoconference on August 22, after which Kyiv would consult with its partners on the implementation of the agreement. The Kremlin did not respond to requests for comment.

The White House declined to comment on the matter. The Biden administration has previously said that the timing and terms of a potential cease-fire agreement with Russia should be determined by Ukraine alone.

A diplomat who spoke about the talks said both Kyiv and Moscow had shown their willingness to accept the agreements ahead of the summit. But officials in Kyiv had mixed expectations about whether the talks could succeed, with some putting the chances at 20 percent and others envisaging even worse prospects, according to two people familiar with the talks, even if the Kursk attack had not happened. A Ukrainian official briefed on the talks said: “We have only one chance to survive this winter, and that's if the Russians don't start new attacks to the power system.”

Kyiv's move toward Moscow, which occupies about 20 percent of Ukraine's territory, was partly aimed at giving Ukraine more leverage in future negotiations, Ukrainian and Western officials said:

“Military analysts are skeptical that Ukrainian forces can maintain control of Russian territory. Moscow also continues to score victories in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine and has not withdrawn troops there to defend against a new Ukrainian offensive. But while Kyiv may have improved its future negotiating position with its land grabs, the likelihood of quick peace talks appears to have diminished. Putin publicly pledged this week not to soften his negotiating position over the attack on Russian territory.”

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