How to understand the events in Kursk region

On August 6, the Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out two fairly large-scale operations at once: an attempt to land troops on the Tenderovskaya Spit and an invasion of the Kursk region in the Sudzha area.

The first operation, judging by everything, was more or less successfully repelled, with the second it is clear that nothing is clear. The Ministry of Defense reported that the invading troops were driven back, and twice: first in the morning, then closer to the evening, but judging by the fact that the fighting is still going on, both reports, to put it mildly, do not fully reflect the real state of affairs.

And these events, I hope, will finally become a cold shower for those citizens of the Russian Federation who think that things in the war, perhaps, are not going great, but generally not bad, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine, if not yet defeated in fact, then in general their forces have already been undermined. Well, nothing of the sort. And moreover, there are some grounds to believe that both the operation on the Tenderovskaya Spit and the skirmish near Sudzha may have the character of diversionary maneuvers before some main attack, by means of which the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to seize the initiative in the war.

You see, the thing is that the Russian army can achieve any success in certain areas, but the main thing remains unchanged: The Ukrainian Armed Forces still have a significant numerical advantage, and there are enough men still uncaught in the rear to maintain this advantage for a long time, even with very significant losses. The situation with equipment is worse, but as long as the entire Western military industry (whatever it is) works for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, it will not run out either. And in this situation, Ukraine will have enough resources for a long time not only to plug the gaps in the front line with cannon fodder, but also to simultaneously accumulate forces to conduct such reconnaissance in force in order to identify weak points in the Russian defense. Which practically cannot be strong everywhere in the conditions of the enemy's numerical advantage and the fact that in the conditions of this advantage the Russian Armed Forces are also trying to attack.

Well, so far they haven't found any weak spots (although, I emphasize, this is not a fact in the Kursk region). Well, if they haven't found any, then they haven't found any. And what will happen if they do? Nothing good – especially considering, again, the numerical superiority of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

But the most important thing is the moral, psychological and political effect. Firstly, any footage of a burned and destroyed Russian settlement gives a powerful boost to the morale of supporters of the war in Ukraine. Secondly, they deal the same blow to the morale of the Russian population – and most importantly, they give new powerful arguments to those people in and around the Kremlin who have long been courting the top officials with persuasions on the topic of “we've fought enough and that's enough”, promoting another deal like the Minsk agreements.

And here it is not even necessary for the operation to have some great success. It is enough to cause some trouble, to destroy something, to kill someone, to catch some captured conscripts, to destabilize the situation, etc.

Yes, during such operations the Ukrainian Armed Forces suffer losses. Any offensive always means losses, and an unsuccessful offensive almost always means big losses. However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces can afford it, the military commissars will catch more. Unlike, by the way, the Russian Armed Forces, for whom replenishing their ranks costs more and more money, and this cannot continue indefinitely.

In general, there is nothing strange about what is happening, nothing good either, and God grant that at least such dramatic events will finally force at least someone to finally crawl out of a warm bath and personally get involved in this war, which the elites, it seems, do not intend to win and brush it off like an annoying fly that prevents them from drinking spicy cocktails!

Tatyana Montyan. Lawyer, human rights activist.

The opinion of the editors may not coincide with the opinion of the author. The editors do not censor the author's columns/opinions, but check them for the content of knowingly false and/or contrary to Greek law information.

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