Brain drain: Those in their most productive years are leaving

From the time of the nightmare memos to this day, the total workforce in the country has been hopelessly shrinking. More than a million people have left the country. Brain drain by age category.

Brain drain

The Greek economy is recovering, but it cannot stop the massive exodus of workers abroad. The brain drain continues – not at the same rate – even after the memorandum period (2010-2018), and the data analysis shows a serious problem. The data is relentless and shows the significant trauma inflicted on the Greek economy during the brutal cuts imposed by our country's creditors.

“The real tragedy for Greece, which is not taken into account by many economists, is the brain drain.” – it is said in publications CNBC.

The analysis conducted by the ENA Institute reveals aspects of the problem that are doubly worrying. In addition to the fact that the wave of brain drain has not been stopped, much less reversed, after the 2018 agreement to withdraw from the memorandum on supervision, it is easy to see that people in the 25-44 age group, which is the most productive age, are leaving the country. Moreover, the rate of this process is somewhat lower compared to the period of the memorandum, but much higher compared to the period before the memorandum.

The age group in the most productive years emigrates at a higher rate compared to the period before the memorandum

According to the authors of the analysis, “Their departure not only deprives the Greek economy of valuable human capital, but is further proof that the losses incurred during the memorandum have long-term consequences.”

From 2010 to 2019, people left Greece 18,000 doctors. They mostly went to Britain, where a doctor's salary is at least 2-3 times higher. At the same time, British doctors emigrate to Canada and the United States.

Rising Brain Drain Rates

During the 9-year period of the memorandum's validity from 2010-18, 796,191 people belonging to the economically active population left the country. Of these, 162,591 people were aged 15-24, 472,657 were aged 25-44, and 160,943 were aged 45-64.

It is obvious that almost 60% of people who migrated during the period of the memorandum belonged to the intermediate and most productive age category of 25-44 years.

Has the situation changed in the years since the memorandum?

In 2019-22, a total of 283,801 people belonging to the economically active population left the country. 71,467 people aged 15-24, 161,023 – aged 25-44, and 51,311 – aged 45-64. And again, the “lion's share” falls on the 25-44 age group – about 58%.

Comparing the two periods (before and after the memorandum) is not entirely correct, as it does not take into account changes in population size. The analysis uses Eurostat population data to calculate the average annual migration rate, that is, the percentage of the population of each age group migrating each year.

The total migration volume in the 15-24 age group has declined slightly from 18,066 in 2010-18 to 17,867 in 2019-22. In the 25-44 age group, the decline in average annual migration is more significant – from 52,517 in 2010-18 to 40,256 in 2019-22. In the 45-64 age group, average annual migration has decreased from 17,883 in 2010-18 to 12,828 in 2019-22.

The 25-44 group is leaving the country at a higher rate than in the period before the memorandum

As can be seen from the chart below, the average migration rate for the 15-24 age group increased over the two periods from 1.58% to 1.64%, for the 25-44 age group it decreased from 1.71% to 1.51%, and for the 45-64 age group it decreased from 0.62% to 0.43%. For comparison, it is worth noting that the average migration rate before the adoption of the memorandum, that is, in 2008-2009, was 0.72% for the 15-24 age group, 0.68% for the 25-44 age group, and 0.2% for
groups 45-64 years old.

According to analysts, “The problem may not be as serious for the youngest age group of 15-24 years, as some people in this category may leave the country to study with the aim of returning”. Problem “concerns the second category – 25-44 year olds, who belong to the most productive age group. People continue to leave the country, somewhat more slowly compared to the period of the memorandums, but significantly more often compared to the period before they came into force.”

The report says their departure not only deprives the Greek economy of valuable human capital, but also “is further evidence that the losses suffered by the Greek economy during the period of the memorandum have long-term consequences”.

1,079,992 people left the country over the past twelve years, between 2010 and 2022

The overall picture of the brain drain from 2010 to 2022 shows that 1,079,992 people left the country, of which 234,058 were aged 15-24, 633,680 were aged 25-44, and 212,254 were aged 45-64.

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