Oil embargo for the West – is it possible?

Could the war in Israel cause the oil tap to be turned off to the West, like half a century ago? Events are repeating themselves, will it come to an embargo?

Then, 50 years ago, Arab countries attacked Israel. The United States helped him survive the Yom Kippur War, which outraged his attackers. The oil embargo they imposed in retaliation forever changed the balance of power in the Middle East, the world economy and energy policy. History repeats itself half a century later: Israel was attacked, the United States came to the rescue, Arab countries were outraged. How far can this outrage go?

Now the world economy is extremely exhausted – by the West’s trade war with China, post-Covid inflation, the consequences of Russian military aggression against Ukraine and gas aggression against Europe. If the oil and gas sheikhs of the Middle East and North Africa again agree to reduce production and limit supplies to “unfriendly countries”, it faces a deep crisis. Are the Arab OPEC countries and Russia, which has joined them, ready to use oil weapons against the West again? And is the West ready for such a development of events? reasons Air Force.

Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which was created after those events half a century ago, says:

“There are parallels between that Middle East crisis and the current one, but there are also key differences: the global energy landscape has changed dramatically since the 1970s and continues to change before our eyes. The world is much better prepared than it was 50 years ago. We know exactly what to do and where to run.”

Opponents of Israel and supporters of the Palestinians have so far “not stammered” about the embargo, the publication writes. One of the Saudi ministers was asked at a conference on November 7 whether the main oil-producing Arab country was ready to use “oil weapons” to end the war. In response, Khalid al-Falih laughed and said:

“Today we are not considering this option. “Saudi Arabia is trying to achieve peace through peace talks.”

The embargo was not mentioned at the first summit of Arab and other Islamic countries in Riyadh on November 11 in 35 days of war. They talked about pressure on the United States and Israel, but did not mention energy sanctions. Even the proposal of the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a mortal enemy of the United States and Israel, to limit supplies to at least Israel did not find support.

Israel imports drops on a global scale – approximately 300 thousand barrels of oil per day, including from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. OPEC officials responded to the Ayatollah’s call with a statement that the organization does not intend to politicize supplies. What the authorities of the OPEC+ countries think, we will find out soon enough, at the next meeting of the cartel on November 26.

Source link