Is long-term normalization of Greek-Turkish relations possible? The opinion of analysts and ex-adviser to the Prime Minister of Greece on national security, Alexandros Diakopoulos.
Elections are held in May in both Greece and Turkey. Relations between the two countries have been tense in recent years. A timid hope for a long-term normalization appeared as a result of “earthquake diplomacy” after the assistance that Greece promptly provided to earthquake-stricken Turkey. What role will the elections play in the course of events?
Analysts note some improvement in relations, although tensions in the Aegean have been quite high until recently. Now Ankara’s activity in the region has decreased, and the statements of officials of both NATO allies have become less harsh. Earlier analysts predicted that there would be a period of calm before the elections in Turkey and Greece. Alexandros Diakopoulos, former National Security Adviser to the Prime Minister of Greece, said:
”It is too early to talk about a new page in relations between the two countries, because the positions of Greece and Turkey are too divergent to be optimistic about the future. An improved relationship does not mean that the problems have disappeared. It only says that we are not in a situation that leads to a crisis.”
It is worth remembering that in 1999 the earthquakes in Greece and Turkey also brought these countries closer. In December of that year, at the summit EU in Helsinki, Athens changed its position on the issue of Ankara’s accession to the EU. According to Turkish-American political scientist Soner Chagaptai, director of the Turkish research program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, earthquake diplomacy could once again have a positive impact on the relationship between the two neighboring states:
“This is a brand new page. I think earthquake diplomacy has really made a difference in Turkey. The huge amount of aid that Greece has sent to Turkey, the good work in terms of public diplomacy, it all really helped. It’s not often that a Greek prime minister tweets in Turkish and gets tens of thousands of likes.
The expert believes that Turkish citizens appreciated the help of Greece, it really changed the mood within the country towards Athens. Cagaptai says the situation is similar to the 1999 after the earthquakes, when Greek-Turkish relations entered a ten-year period of normalization.
The months following the May elections in both countries will show how long the improvement in bilateral ties will last this time, experts say.
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