Moscow officially warned NATOwhat in case attempts to isolate Kaliningrad ready to use all available arsenal, including nuclear weapons.
Vladimir Putin repeated this warning publicly, while NATO said it does not currently see an immediate threat of attack..
Briefly about the main thing
- Russia sent NATO a diplomatic warning regarding Kaliningrad;
- Moscow claims to have information about possible plans for an air and sea blockade of the Russian region;
- the document states readiness to use the entire arsenal, including nuclear weapons;
- On October 1, Vladimir Putin publicly repeated the warning to defend Kaliningrad by all available means;
- NATO says it is a defensive alliance and has no plans to attack Russian territory;
- Mark Rutte does not see an immediate threat to NATO territory and calls on Moscow to stop nuclear threats;
- The main risk now is not the announced preparation for war, but a further increase in rates and the possibility of an erroneous calculation.
Moscow sent NATO an official warning
The current aggravation began not only with public statements by politicians.
Russia sent a diplomatic document to NATO countries in which it warned of the possible consequences of an attempt to isolate the Kaliningrad region.
According to Reutersin the document, Moscow claims to have information about possible NATO preparations for an air and sea blockade of Kaliningrad.
The Russian side stated that if a threat arises to the territory of the region, it will be ready to use all available arsenal, including nuclear weapons.
There is no independent confirmation of the existence of NATO plans to blockade Kaliningrad.
What Putin said
On October 1, Vladimir Putin returned to this topic publicly.
The Russian president said the world was going through an extremely dangerous period and warned Western countries against further rate hikes.
Answering a question about Kaliningrad, Putin stressed that Russia will defend its territory “by all available means”including nuclear potential.
At the same time, he argued that Russia does not intend to attack European states and is interested in peaceful coexistence.
The speech gives details Reuters.
Thus, Moscow’s position appears ambivalent: Russia states that it does not intend to start a conflict with NATO, but at the same time warns in advance about the possible use of nuclear weapons if it considers Kaliningrad to be under threat.
Why Kaliningrad
The Kaliningrad region occupies an extremely vulnerable and at the same time strategically important position.
The Russian region is separated from the main territory of the country and is located between Poland and Lithuania — both countries are members of NATO.
On the territory of the Kaliningrad region there is the Russian Baltic Fleet, a developed air defense system and missile systems “Iskander”capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads.
Nearby runs the so-called Suwalki corridor – a relatively narrow section of the territory of Poland and Lithuania between Kaliningrad and Belarus. In NATO military planning, this area has long been considered one of the most sensitive areas of the alliance’s eastern flank.
NATO: “Stop Nuclear Threats”
NATO’s response came quickly.
Secretary General of the Alliance Mark Rutte stated that NATO is a defensive alliance and Russian territory is not under threat of attack from the alliance.
“Stop nuclear threats,” he said, commenting on the Russian warning.
The full transcript of the speech was published on official NATO website.
At the same time, Rutte tried not to raise the level of anxiety.
According to him, There is currently no immediate threat to NATO territory. If Russia actually begins to prepare a major military operation against Poland, Lithuania, Finland or other alliance countries, intelligence will see a corresponding movement of forces.
He also stressed that NATO is ready to defend every centimeter of the territory of its members.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8fW1q8M8rM
Euronews video: Mark Rutte responds to Russian warning on Kaliningrad
What does the USA say?
At the time of publication, there was no separate fresh official statement from the White House or the State Department dedicated specifically to the Russian note about Kaliningrad.
However, Rutte specifically emphasized that The United States remains committed to protecting European alliesincluding both conventional and nuclear deterrence.
In other words, NATO is not yet responding to Russian rhetoric with symmetrical nuclear threats, but is reminding Moscow of the validity of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Europe fears more than just direct war
On the European side, the conversation today is not only about the possibility of a direct armed conflict.
Chancellor of Germany Friedrich Merz October 1 warned that Europe must prepare for increased Russian hybrid operations – cyber attacks, sabotage, interference in infrastructure and other forms of pressure.
He reaffirmed his support for Ukraine and at the same time stated the need to strengthen Europe’s own defense.
This is reported by Reuters.
Are there any real preparations for the blockade of Kaliningrad?
This is perhaps the most important question.
Russia says it has information about plans for an air and sea blockade of the region.
NATO denies this and emphasizes the defensive nature of its activity in the Baltic Sea.
There is currently no public evidence that the alliance actually decided to physically isolate Kaliningrad.
At the same time, NATO significantly increased its military activity in the Baltic region after Finland and Sweden joined the alliance. Major exercises are regularly held here, air defense is being strengthened and the presence of allied forces is expanding.
From the Russian point of view, this increases Kaliningrad’s military vulnerability. For NATO, on the contrary, these measures are a response to the war in Ukraine and the growth of Russian military activity.
Why is this rhetoric dangerous, even if no one wants war?
The main danger of such statements is not necessarily that one of the parties has already decided to start a war.
The problem is the gradual lowering of the threshold of acceptable rhetoric.
As nuclear weapons are increasingly publicly mentioned as a possible response to military action, the margin for error becomes smaller.
A military exercise, an incident with an aircraft or ship, a misinterpreted maneuver, or a decision on transport restrictions may be perceived by the other side not as a local action, but as the beginning of a larger operation.
It is the risk of incorrect calculations that experts in nuclear deterrence traditionally consider one of the most dangerous factors in the confrontation between nuclear powers.
Editorial comment. Now there is no reason to say that Russia and NATO are preparing for a direct war for Kaliningrad. NATO says it is not planning an attack and does not see an immediate threat to the alliance’s territory. Russia, in turn, claims that it has no intention of attacking Europe. But at the same time, both sides are increasing their military readiness, and Moscow is already officially introducing nuclear weapons into the scenario of a possible conflict around the region. Therefore, the main danger here is not the declared war, but how quickly hypothetical scenarios begin to turn into actual military plans and responses.
Kaliningrad today is becoming one of the points where the border between containment and escalation is especially thin. And that is why the words of both sides now have to be monitored no less carefully than the movement of troops.
More Stories
Trump chose diesel instead of Zelensky: the deal with Putin escalated into an open conflict with Kiev
“Happy birthday, Mr. President”: Geranium-4 with a portrait of Putin flew over Kiev
Rio tanker attacked near Sochi: Cypriot trace, Russian oil and 23 rescued sailors