The Greek economy is growing again, but behind the positive current dynamics there is an important detail: By 2025, real output remained approximately 10% below 2009 levels.
Briefly about the main thing
- Greece’s real total value added in 2025 was approximately 10% below 2009 and 13% below the peak of 2008;
- At the same time, the country’s real GDP in 2025 increased by another 2.1%;
- The manufacturing industry produces approximately 7% morethan in 2009;
- information and communications – approximately 5% more;
- construction is still approximately 39% lower 2009 level;
- trade, transport, hotels and catering as a single statistical sector – approximately 27% lower.
There is growth. Why then is the economy still below 2009 levels?
At first glance, the data appears contradictory. ELSTAT reports that Greece’s real GDP grew by 2.1% in 2025, the third consecutive year of growth at roughly this rate.
At the same time, new research KEFIM “Greek Production Model 2000–2025” shows that the economy is still producing about 10% less in real terms than in 2009.
There is no contradiction here. The first indicator answers the question, how much the economy has grown over the past year. The second compares the current size of the manufacturing base with the level before the debt crisis.
Methodology Eurostat uses so-called chain volume indices – chain-linked volumes. The impact of rising prices is removed from the calculation. This allows you to understand whether a country actually produces more goods and services, and not just sells approximately the same volume at a higher price.
This is why Greece’s nominal GDP is significantly higher today than many years ago, but this in itself does not mean a similar increase in real output.
Production level is approximately the same as in 2003–2004
According to KEFIM calculations based on Eurostat data, in 2025 the real volume of total value added was approximately 10% below 2009 and on 13% below 2008 high.
According to this indicator, the country has actually returned to approximately the level 2003–2004.
This is the result of an extremely deep failure during the debt crisis. The subsequent recovery and then a new growth cycle after the pandemic brought back much of the losses, but not yet all.
Previously, Athens News already drew attention to the difference between nominal and real economic growth in the material “37% growth out of thin air: how the economy was recalculated in Greece”.
Which industries have recovered?
The picture across economic sectors is very heterogeneous.
| Industry | Share of GDP 2009 | Share of GDP 2025 | Real volume by 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture | 2.9% | 3.6% | −9% |
| Manufacturing industry | 8.2% | 9.1% | +7% |
| Construction | 4.8% | 2.1% | −39% |
| Trade, transport, hotels, catering | 21.8% | 20.6% | −27% |
| Information and communications | 2.7% | 3.2% | +5% |
| Finance and insurance | 4.1% | 5.1% | −12% |
| Professional and administrative services | 5.8% | 6.1% | −14% |
The source of industry calculations is Policy Brief KEFIM based on Eurostat data.
Industry is one of the main exceptions
The most noticeable positive result shows manufacturing industry. Its share increased from 8.2% to 9.1% of GDP, and most importantly, the growth occurred not only due to prices.
The actual production volume was approximately 7% higher than 2009. The sector has recovered particularly quickly in recent years: the study calculates that between 2019 and 2025, real volume grew by about 44%.
The second notable exception is information technology, communications and information services. Actual production here is about 5% higher than in 2009, and since 2019 the sector has more than halved.
The problem is scale: it is still only about 3% of GDPtherefore, even the rapid growth of IT is not capable of independently changing the overall picture of the economy.
Tourism records don’t mean the entire sector has recovered
Particular care must be taken in interpreting the figure of −27% for the group “trade, transport, hotels and catering.”
She does not mean that Greek tourism is down 27%. Eurostat combines several activities into one large category. During this time, hotels and catering have strengthened significantly, while trade, which is closely linked to domestic consumption of the population, has recovered much more weakly.
Therefore, it is possible that Greece sets tourism records, but the entire combined sector still produces less than before the crisis.
We discussed this structural problem in detail in the material “Exports and tourism are growing, but the money is going abroad: the structural trap of the Greek economy”as well as in the analysis “Tourism and coffee instead of industry”.
Construction: growth after almost complete collapse
Construction is even more indicative. From 2019 to 2025, the real volume of the industry increased by approximately 68%. It would seem to be a roaring recovery.
But the starting point was so low that even after this increase, construction remains at 39% below 2009and relative to the peak of 2006 – approximately 61% lower.
That is why the strong growth rates of individual years must be compared with the level from which this growth began.
A similar picture is shown by ELSTAT data on construction activity, which Athens News tracked in the material about the dynamics of construction permits.
Why does the growth of the industry share prove nothing?
One of the most useful findings from the KEFIM study concerns the difference between industry share in GDP and real production volume.
For example, the share of agriculture increased from 2.9% to 3.6% of GDP. But the physical volume of production was 9% lower than in 2009.
Similarly, financial and insurance services increased their share from 4.1% to 5.1%, although their actual volume decreased by about 12%.
The reason is prices. If the products or services of one industry become more expensive than others, its monetary share in the economy can increase even without an increase in real volume.
The growth of recent years is still real
From the results of the study, one cannot draw the opposite conclusion that there is no current economic growth at all.
According to ELSTATreal GDP increased by 2.1% in 2023, 2.1% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025.
Eurostat also records the growth of the Greek economy. Therefore, the correct formulation is different: Greece is now growing, but after an exceptionally deep crisis has not yet regained all the lost real output.
Previously, we compared the current growth, investment, consumption, export and productivity figures in detail in the material “Growth on paper and stagnation in reality: what the Greek economic indicators for 2025 hide”.
The main question is what will grow next?
After the crisis, the structure of the Greek economy really changed. Internationally traded industries have regained some of their lost weight, industry has recovered markedly, and the digital sector is growing rapidly.
But the total production base remains smaller than before the crisis. At the same time, investment in Greece is still significantly below the EU average: according to another KEFIM study, in 2025 gross investment was approx. 16.9% of GDP versus 21.3% in the EU.
Editorial comment. Data allows us to recognize two realities simultaneously. The Greek economy has indeed been growing in recent years, and this is confirmed by ELSTAT and Eurostat. But growth from a deeply failed base does not equate to full recovery. So the question for the next stage is no longer so much whether GDP grows by 1.5%, 2%, or 2.5% in a given year, but rather which industries generate that growth, whether real output is increasing, and whether industry, technology, exports, and investment can expand the country’s manufacturing base.
Sources: KEFIM, Eurostat – national accounts, Eurostat – real GDP, ELSTAT – “Greek Economy”.
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