Greek supermarkets are preparing for a new wave of food price increases. New price lists with increases for dairy products, cheeses, bread and other basic goods have already begun to arrive to the Ministry of Development and regulatory authorities, and changes may become noticeable on the shelves in about a month.
Briefly about the main thing
- the first new price lists already contain increases by dairy products, cheese and baked goods;
- new prices may begin to appear in stores in about a month;
- The market expects an even stronger wave at the end of 2026 – beginning of 2027;
- the main reasons are expensive fuel, energy, transport, packaging, fertilizers and grain;
- prices for phosphate fertilizers in the EU increased by about 30% over the year, and flour for feed – by about 22%;
- in August food supply in Greece was approximately 36% more expensive than in 2020;
- For now, the government is relying primarily on measures on fuel and on existing restrictions for suppliers and supermarkets.
New price lists are already arriving
According to Kathimerinisuppliers began submitting new price lists to the Ministry of Development and the Independent Market Monitoring Authority.
We are talking primarily about:
- dairy products;
- cheeses;
- bread and pastries;
- other branded food products.
According to market estimates, the new prices could begin to apply in about a month.
This means that the consumer can see the first noticeable changes already during October-November.
Why are food prices going up again?
The new wave consists of several factors at once.
First – fuel and energy.
Rising oil prices increase not only transportation costs, but also production costs.
In addition, oil prices directly affect the cost of plastic packaging, since polyethylene, polypropylene and other materials are made from petrochemical feedstocks.
Paper packaging is also becoming more expensive, since the pulp and paper industry is an energy-intensive industry.
According to industry estimates, oil prices rise for every $10 per barrel could increase the cost of some plastic resins to around €0.16 per kilogram.
Transport is becoming more and more expensive
A separate problem is logistics.
Military conflicts in the Middle East and attacks on key shipping routes continue to disrupt normal cargo movements.
This means more expensive shipping, insurance, extra fuel and longer delivery times.
This is especially sensitive for the food industry, since many ingredients, packaging and raw materials are sourced from abroad.
Fertilizer prices are rising sharply again
The next factor starts even earlier – on the field.
According to European monitoring of agricultural prices, the average cost of phosphate fertilizers in the EU in August reached approximately €739 per ton versus €569 a year earlier.
This is an increase of approximately 30%.
Since the beginning of the year, the price increase has been about 22%.
In Greece, according to the latest ELSTAT data on agricultural costs, fertilizers have risen in price by about 11.3%. Official ELSTAT data confirms that the Agriculture and Livestock Cost Index continues to reflect increased pressure on producers. ELSTAT – Agricultural Price Indices, July 2026.
The grain will hit both bread and meat
Another problem is the grain market.
The international grain price index in September increased by approximately 6%.
The reasons are expectations of a weaker harvest in some parts of Europe after an extremely hot summer and problems with exports through the Black Sea.
Suppliers are already warning the food industry about a possible rise in flour prices.
But grain affects more than just bread.
Flour and grains are used in the production of feed, so the increase in their cost gradually translates into prices for milk, cheese, meat and eggs.
According to industry data, flour and other ingredients used for feed are already approximately 22% more expensive than a year ago.
Milk is also starting to get more expensive.
The producer price for cow’s milk has recently risen to approximately €0.58 per liter versus €0.55 a year ago.
A separate situation arises with sheep and goat milk, where the market is under pressure due to a reduction in livestock.
That is why the rise in price of feta may become especially noticeable.
The Athens News has already reported that losses of sheep and goats create a shortage of raw materials for feta production.
The industry admits that the retail price of feta could rise to €15–16 per kilo.
Products are already much more expensive than a few years ago
The most unpleasant part of the new wave is that it does not start from a low base.
According to calculations provided by Kathimerini based on official indices, in August 2026 food supplies in Greece were approximately 36.35% more expensive than in August 2020.
Compared to March 2022, the increase is approx. 24.5%.
The official ELSTAT index shows that in the last year alone, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group grew by another 0.9%. At the same time, some categories rose in price much faster: beef – by about 13.5%, lamb and goat meat – by 11.3%.
What’s happening with the government’s price reduction program?
In the summer, the government and major suppliers agreed to temporarily reduce prices on a number of goods.
By the end of August, more than 1700 product itemsfor which an average reduction of about 9.5% was announced. ERTnews – price reduction program.
However, some of the agreements are limited in time, and the market expects that after October their influence will noticeably weaken.
Therefore, the possibility of keeping some products with high demand in the program at least for the Christmas holidays is now being discussed.
What restrictions remain?
The government simultaneously extended a number of protective measures.
Suppliers are required to notify the regulatory authority of price increases.
Supermarkets also continue to provide indicative prices for fruits and vegetables.
In addition, until the end of 2026, the rule remains: if a supplier has increased the price of a product, it cannot be immediately converted into an advertising “discount” – there is a three-month restriction on carrying out promotions after the increase. This rule is also described in official explanations General Secretariat of Trade.
What will go up in price first?
Based on the price lists already received and the cost structure of manufacturers, the most vulnerable look like:
- milk and dairy products;
- cheese, especially feta;
- bread and pastries;
- products that actively use plastic and paper packaging;
- meat and eggs – if the rise in feed costs continues.
However, the exact amount of the increase will vary between manufacturers and networks. The mere fact of an increase in production costs does not mean an equal percentage increase in all retail prices.
The hardest part can start in winter
The food industry is warning that current price lists may be just the first wave.
If energy, transportation and raw materials remain expensive, wider price revisions are expected at the end of 2026 – beginning of 2027.
At the same time, energy pressure affects not only food. In August, prices for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels in the ELSTAT index were on average 9.7% higher than a year earlier.
Thus, a new round of food inflation may coincide with the beginning of the heating season, when family expenses traditionally increase.
Editorial comment. “Putin is to blame” is a convenient formula
In recent years, the explanation “Putin is to blame” has become almost universal in Europe: expensive gas, electricity, food, fertilizers, transport – everything is very conveniently associated with the war in Ukraine.
The Russian invasion was indeed a massive economic shock to Europe. But if you look not at political slogans, but at an ordinary receipt from a supermarket, the picture turns out to be much more complicated.
After 2022, the European Union itself decided to sharply reduce purchases of Russian energy resources and introduced large-scale sanctions. Supply chains that have been familiar for decades had to be rebuilt: looking for new suppliers of oil and petroleum products, changing routes, paying for more expensive logistics, freight and insurance.
The situation with fertilizers is even more significant. There is no direct general EU ban on Russian fertilizers, but European agriculture still found itself under pressure from high prices for gas, transport and raw materials, and the previous supply system became noticeably more complex and expensive.
At the same time, Europe is sending huge amounts of financial and military assistance to Ukraine, and now new risks in the Middle East, more expensive shipping and yet another instability in the oil market have been added to the previous expenses.
Therefore the phrase “Putin is to blame” indeed remains a convenient formula for a press conference.
But when you look at the receipt from the Greek supermarket, it becomes clear that the culprits there are already slightly different – and there is much more than one of them.
The war became one of the factors. But today’s price of bread, milk, cheese or fuel also consists of sanctions policies, EU decisions, energy costs, transport routes, taxes, producer costs and new crises far beyond the borders of Ukraine.
Geopolitics is happening somewhere far away. But it is ultimately the buyer at the checkout who pays for it.
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