Head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Sergey Naryshkin stated that the risk of a large-scale conflict throughout Eurasia has become “quite real” and causes Moscow the most serious concerns.
The statement was made on September 4 in St. Petersburg at the XXII meeting of the meeting of heads of security agencies and intelligence services of the CIS states.
According to Naryshkin, European governments are relying on the so-called “controlled escalation” — a gradual increase in pressure on Russia without moving to direct war.
“The risk of a large-scale conflict throughout Eurasia is quite real. This raises the most serious concerns.”
His words are confirmed by publications Interfax And TASS.
❗️?? Naryshkin, capo dell’intelligence estera russa:
“I servizi occidentali hanno creato un nuovo ‘asse del male’: Russia, Cina, Iran e Corea del Nord.
Il rischio di un conflitto su larga scala in Eurasia è reale e desta seria preoccupazione.” pic.twitter.com/YkKixU328R— Arancia Geopolitica (@AranciaGeopolit) September 4, 2026
“Europe believes in controlled escalation”
Naryshkin argues that European leaders are trying to apply a strategy of balancing on the brink of direct conflict.
“According to our data, European leaders believe in controlled escalation, in the brinkmanship strategy developed by Western intelligence services back in the last century.”
According to him, the main danger of such a strategy is that the political system itself gradually becomes a hostage to its own rhetoric.
The head of the Foreign Intelligence Service said that at a certain point tensions could reach a level where even a small episode can set off a chain of events that can no longer be stopped.
The warning comes amid a sharp escalation in Europe
The context of the statement is especially important.
Over the past few days, Russia’s relations with European countries have deteriorated sharply.
The Athens News reported that Germany has moved to a new stage of confrontation with Russiaannouncing additional deliveries of IRIS-T systems and thousands of attack drones to Ukraine.
And then Poland and Great Britain summoned Russian diplomats due to suspected Russian sabotage activity around Leipzig/Halle airport.
European governments are increasingly speaking publicly about a Russian “hybrid war” involving sabotage, arson, cyberattacks and operations against Ukrainian military logistics.
Moscow denies these accusations.
“European society is too spoiled”
Separately, Naryshkin spoke sharply about the ability of European societies to withstand a prolonged major conflict.
According to the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, European society was formed in conditions of consumption and a high level of comfort even today not ready for a large-scale war with Russia.
“European society is too spoiled and deformed to be ready for a big war in the East.”
This is exactly the wording contained in the message TASS.
Moreover, the Greek source translates the expression as “spoiled and corrupt society.” In the original English version of TASS, the word is used rather distorted – “deformed”, so “corrupt” here seems like too loose a translation.
Moscow links Europe’s rearmament with the “myth of the threat from the East”
Naryshkin also argues that European politicians are using the Russian threat as justification for a radical increase in military spending.
According to him, this is not only about the purchase of weapons.
Europe at the same time:
- dramatically increases defense budgets;
- expands arms production;
- modernizes armies;
- redevelops roads, railroads, and ports for military logistics;
- prepares industry for work in conditions of long-term conflict.
Naryshkin said that European political and financial-industrial groups are using the “myth of a threat from the East” to justify this process.
But the rearmament of Europe is really underway
Here the Russian interpretation is controversial in terms of motives, but the very fact of large-scale military rearmament in Europe is difficult to deny.
Germany is sharply increasing its arms production, Poland is building up its ground forces, the Baltic states are strengthening their borders, and the EU is investing more and more in defense industry and military mobility.
At the same time, NATO is strengthening the infrastructure that allows it to quickly transfer troops and heavy equipment to the eastern flank.
For Moscow, all this looks like Europe is preparing for a possible long-term confrontation with Russia.
Putin also said the day before: “We must be prepared for anything.”
Naryshkin’s statement came just a day after Vladimir Putin’s words about the need for Russia to be prepared for any development of events.
“Athens News” examined these statements in detail in the material “We must be prepared for anything”.
Then Putin spoke primarily about Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure, but at the same time warned of a response in the event of attacks that could lead to disasters with civil aviation.
The main risk is not a planned war, but a mistake
There is one fundamentally important point in Naryshkin’s statements.
He does not claim that Europe has already decided to go to direct war with Russia.
His thesis is different: all parties may expect to be able to raise rates in a controlled manner, but one day control may be lost.
It is this scenario that looks the most dangerous today.
A Russian drone or alleged sabotage on NATO territory, a Ukrainian attack by Western weapons on a sensitive Russian target, the death of military personnel from one of the NATO countries, or an attack on a European military-industrial complex facility could create a situation where political leaders will have to respond beyond the level of sanctions and diplomatic expulsions.
Editorial comment
Moscow’s latest statements are increasingly difficult to regard as usual rhetoric from the times of the Ukrainian conflict.
Putin says Russia must be ready for “anything.” Naryshkin is already talking not only about the war between Russia and NATO, but about the possibility of a large-scale conflict throughout Eurasia.
At the same time, Europe is moving in the opposite direction: increasing military production, building new factories, modernizing transport infrastructure and becoming increasingly integrated into Ukraine’s military supply.
Neither side officially says that it wants direct war.
And this is what makes the situation most dangerous.
Today’s model is based on the assumption that there is some kind of secure border: you can supply increasingly longer-range weapons, conduct covert operations, respond with sanctions, close consulates, attack infrastructure, and at the same time stop literally one step away from an open conflict each time.
But history knows many wars that none of the participants initially wanted.
The current situation with Germany looks especially alarming. Berlin accuses Russia of hybrid operations on its territory while sharply expanding the production of strike weapons for Ukraine. Moscow, in turn, is increasingly raising the question of at what point does an arms supplier turn into an actual participant in the war.
Therefore, Naryshkin’s words are important not as a forecast “war will definitely begin,” but as a description of the main threat of the current moment: The parties are increasingly preparing for a conflict that, in their own words, no one wants.
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