Turkish Hürriyet claims that Ankara is preparing to sell Russian S-400 systems to one of the Persian Gulf countries in order to remove the main obstacle to Turkey’s return to F-35 program and CAATSA sanctions lifting.
The author of the publication, journalist Abdulkadir Selvi, close to the Turkish authorities, writes that the announcement of the deal could be made today, and the last technical and diplomatic issues have allegedly been resolved. Potential buyers are called UAE or Qatarand in Turkish publications the Emirates are more often mentioned.
According to DikenSelvi claims that the S-400s were “sold to a third country,” and Türkiye thus expects to get out of CAATSA sanctions and return to the F-35 issue. Similar messages are retold Turkiye Today and other Turkish publications.
There is no official confirmation of the transaction at the time of writing. The Kremlin has already reacted cautiously: Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said that Russia is in contact with Turkey over the fate of the S-400, calling the issue “extremely sensitive.” This is reported by Reuters.
Why should Turkey get rid of the S-400?
The S-400 has become not so much a weapon for Turkey as a political weight around its neck. The purchase of Russian systems led to Ankara’s exclusion from the F-35 program in 2019 and CAATSA sanctions in 2020. Washington believed that the Russian air defense system was incompatible with NATO infrastructure and could threaten the safety of F-35 technology.
Now Ankara is trying to turn the problem into a deal. The logic is simple: if the S-400s are no longer in Turkey, the main formal argument against lifting sanctions and returning to the F-35 discussion disappears. A very neat Turkish move: first buy a Russian system, get sanctions, lose the F-35, and then try to sell the same system as a ticket back to the American program. Geopolitical second-hand, but with ambitions.
Athens News previously wrote that the United States and Türkiye discussed a possible formula for the S-400 and F-35, and Turkish media already presented this as approaching an agreement. Turkish media: US and Türkiye are close to agreement on S-400 and F-35.
What does such a scenario promise for Ankara?
If the sale actually takes place and is recognized by Washington as a sufficient solution to the S-400 problem, Türkiye will receive three benefits at once.
The first is a chance to have CAATSA sanctions lifted. Donald Trump has already stated that he intends to lift sanctions on Turkey and consider the issue of selling the F-35. Reuters noted that Trump spoke about this after meeting with Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the NATO summit, but acknowledged the presence of legal and congressional obstacles. Reuters: Trump says he will lift Turkey sanctions, decide on F-35s.
The second is the supply of American engines for KAAN. Athens News has already written that the US Congress did not block the sale of F110 engines to Turkey for pre-production KAAN aircraft. The USA opened the way for Turkey to KAAN. This is a separate, but politically related signal: Washington is gradually unfreezing defense channels with Ankara.
The third is a possible return to the F-35. This is the main prize. Türkiye was not just a buyer, but a participant in the production chain of the program, invested money and expected to receive aircraft. Now Ankara is trying to prove that the obstacle has been removed.
But it’s not that simple
The Turkish press presents the sale of the S-400 almost as a technical operation: they found a buyer, removed the system, and opened the way to the F-35. In reality, everything is more complicated.
First, we need Russia’s position. The S-400 is a Russian system, and its re-export to a third country will almost certainly require approval from Moscow under the terms of the original contract. This is why the Kremlin’s reaction is so revealing: Peskov did not confirm the sale, but did not directly refute it, calling the topic sensitive.
Secondly, the question is to whom exactly the system can be transferred. If we are talking about the UAE, this creates a separate regional irritant for Iran. Tehran is unlikely to calmly view the transfer of the S-400 to a country it perceives as part of a hostile regional architecture closely linked to the United States and Israel. Formally, Iran is not a party to the Turkish-Russian contract, but its political voice in such a story will be loud.
Thirdly, even if the S-400 physically leaves Turkey, this does not mean the automatic sale of the F-35. In the United States, there remains Congress, the Israeli factor, the Greek and Armenian lobbies, mistrust of Erdogan, questions about NATO, Syria, Hamas, Russia and the general behavior of Ankara. American politics loves deals, but it loves leaving leverage even more.
Why are the UAE or Qatar possible?
The UAE looks like a more likely buyer for several reasons. The Emirates already has a developed air defense system, including Western systems, and is actively investing in multi-layered defense against missiles and drones. The S-400 could strengthen the long-range echelon, although at the same time it would create compatibility problems with American infrastructure.
Qatar is also a possible buyer, but the political logic there is more complicated: Doha is closely connected with the United States, it has a large American base on its territory, and the purchase of a Russian system could raise the same questions that once hit Turkey. That is, one country is trying to get rid of the sanctions problem by transferring it to another. Great diplomacy: a hot potato, only worth billions and with radar.
According to Turkiye Todayeven before today’s reports, Ankara had discussed the option of deploying or transferring the S-400 to Dubai as a way to remove the obstacle to Turkey’s return to the F-35.
Why does this worry Greece?
For Greece, this scenario is extremely unpleasant. Türkiye is simultaneously getting rid of the S-400 problem, moving closer to removing CAATSA, receiving engines for KAAN and may return to negotiations on the F-35. This is not just a diplomatic maneuver, but a potential realignment of the balance of power in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean.
Greece itself is investing in the F-35, Rafale, upgraded F-16 Viper, frigates and air defense. But if Türkiye also returns to the F-35, the Greek bet on a qualitative aviation advantage will be partially invalidated. Not completely, but seriously. The point of the F-35 for Athens is precisely to gain a technological gap. If Ankara receives the same class of aircraft, the gap will narrow.
Athens News recently wrote that Greece is among the top 5 NATO countries in defense spending, devoting 3.65% of GDP to basic defense. Greece entered NATO’s top 5 in defense spending. But high costs do not guarantee that the allies will not simultaneously strengthen Turkey. NATO is like a family dinner with knives: everyone is smiling, but it’s better to keep your hands in sight.
Athens must act now
Even if Hürriyet’s message turns out to be premature or part of political pressure, Athens cannot pretend that nothing is happening. The question needs to be raised in Washington and Brussels now: what conditions the United States considers sufficient for Turkey to return to the F-35, how the fate of the S-400 will be checked, who will receive the system and whether its access to Russian specialists and data will be excluded.
Greece should also demand that any conversation about the F-35 for Turkey be linked not only to the fate of the S-400, but also to Ankara’s behavior in the Aegean, airspace violations, the casus belli threat, Cyprus, and Turkey’s overall compatibility with NATO policy. Otherwise, you will end up with a very convenient American formula: the Russian system was taken away, which means all the problems disappeared. No, they haven’t disappeared. Just one problem was loaded onto the ship.
It is especially important to prevent Türkiye from selling the S-400, receiving the F-35 and maintaining all its previous leverage over Greece. This will no longer be diplomacy, but a reward for many years of playing on two fronts – with Russia and NATO at the same time.
Main conclusion
Hürriyet’s report on the sale of Turkish S-400s to the Gulf country has not yet been officially confirmed, but it fits into the new line of Ankara and Washington: remove the formal obstacle, remove CAATSA and open the way to the F-35.
For Turkey, this could be the perfect exchange: get rid of a toxic Russian asset, get American engines for KAAN and return to negotiations on the F-35. For the United States, this is a way to return Ankara to the orbit of military cooperation. This is an extremely sensitive issue for Russia and Iran. This is an alarming signal for Greece.
If the S-400s really go to the UAE or Qatar, this is not the end of the story, but the beginning of a new deal around Turkey. And Athens must ensure that the decision on the F-35 is made not only according to the formula “where are the S-400s now”, but according to Turkey’s full behavior in the region. Because if Ankara receives the F-35 after the whole story with Russian systems, it will not just be a “reset of relations.” This will be a lesson to all allies: you can buy weapons from Moscow, bargain with Washington, sell the problem to a third country – and in the end get a prize.
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