Last minute saves the season: why Greek hoteliers are cautiously waiting for a new record

Greek tourism is heading towards a strong season againbut everything depends more on last minute bookings. Crete and Mykonos enter July more confidently, while Santorini remains one of the weak points of the season.

Greek tourism remains on an upward trajectory in 2026, but the season is becoming increasingly unpredictable. After a weak May-June, the market is increasingly relying on last-minute bookings to decide whether the year will be a new record or just another season of “many people, little profit.”

According to the data provided Naftemporikiinternational air arrivals to Greece for the period from December 29, 2025 to June 28, 2026 reached 12.3 millionan increase of 4% compared to the same period last year. Athens received 5.7 million passengers, up 3%, and Thessaloniki 1.2 million, up 5%.

Formally, the picture is positive. But hoteliers are increasingly warning that arrivals alone no longer explain anything. A tourist can fly in, but not live in a hotel, spend less, stay for a shorter period and book a room a few days before the trip. Beautiful numbers on the airport board do not mean beautiful numbers at the hotel box office. Surprisingly, the tourism economy is still more complex than the joyful counting of suitcases.

Last minute has become the norm

The main driver of the season is last minute bookings. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, expensive airfare and general economic uncertainty are causing tourists to put off decisions until the last minute.

This trend is already visible in the short-term rental market. Athens News previously wrote that Airbnb in Greece is also moving to the last minute format: in Athens and Thessaloniki, the booking window has been reduced to 15 days, and on the islands – to about 50 days. Airbnb in Greece goes last minute.

For a tourist, this is an attempt to catch the best price. For a hotelier, there is constant nervous mathematics: today the room is empty, tomorrow they can buy it, the day after tomorrow they will have to reduce the price, and after a week it turns out that there was still demand. This market, apparently, was specially invented to make reservation managers stop believing in a restful sleep.

Athens and Thessaloniki are growing, but profits are not guaranteed

Chairman of the Panhellenic Federation of Hoteliers, Yannis Hatzisnotes that the overall picture is positive but requires careful reading. According to him, an increase in arrivals does not automatically mean an increase in hotel occupancy, revenue and profits.

The reason is a change in the market structure itself. Demand is distributed between hotels, short-term rentals, villas, apartments and other forms of accommodation. At the same time, operating and salary costs are rising. Therefore, even a new record for arrivals may not become a record for net profit.

The Athens News has already discussed this problem in an article about the two sides of Greek tourism: demand remains, but profit remains in question. Two sides of Greek tourism: there is demand, profit is in question.

Hatzis emphasizes that the success of tourism can no longer be measured solely by the number of arrivals. What matters is where they stayed, how many nights they stayed, how much they spent, and what real value they left to the local economy.

Greece moves at different speeds

There is no single picture for the country. Some directions are growing, others are stalling or even sagging.

Among the destinations with noticeable growth are Samos, Chania, Mykonos, Skiathos, Kerkyra and Heraklion. At the same time, stagnation or decline is recorded in Kavala, Kos, Mytilene and especially Santorini.

This shows that Greek tourism is becoming less and less like a single machine and more and more like a collection of different markets. Each has its own air connections, prices, infrastructure, tourist profile and its own problems. In some places, the brand and new flights help, in others, expensive tickets, congested borders, water shortages, a bad reputation after natural risks, or simply an overrated destination are a hindrance.

The Athens News wrote separately about the fact that island tourism is an infrastructural risk zone in an article about water shortages in the Aegean Islands. Aegean islands without water: tourism is at risk.

Crete: there is flow, costs are lower

In Crete, May-June was generally positive: occupancy was satisfactory and the tourist flow was high. However, according to the managing director of Stella Hotels Collection Dimitris Tzirakisaverage spending per tourist is decreasing.

Travelers have become more careful in their spending. They come, but choose restaurants, entertainment and additional services more carefully. For business, this means an unpleasant combination: there are many guests, but everyone leaves less money.

In Crete it is now about 230,000 hotel beds and approximately 170,000 Airbnb beds. At the same time, some old hotels are being renovated and raising their quality, which increases competition. An important point for the future of the island will be the launch of a new airport in Kasteli, which is expected in 2029.

Mykonos revives after a slow start

Mykonos entered the high season stronger than it started the year. May-June, according to the head of the island’s hoteliers association Maria Cusatanawere slightly negative or close to last year’s level. But the pace of bookings picked up in July.

Tourists from Australia, the USA, Canada, as well as from South America – Argentina and Brazil are gradually returning to the island. European markets also remain important: UK, Germany, France and Italy.

This is especially important for Mykonos: the island depends not only on the number of tourists, but also on their ability to pay. If high prices for air tickets cut off distant markets, then even full rooms do not always compensate for the loss in additional consumption.

Santorini remains a weak link

The most alarming picture is in Santorini. According to the head of local hoteliers Antonis Pagonsbookings in May-June decreased by 13%, and in total, compared to 2024, the drop reaches about 25%.

According to current data, July-August also does not look like a salvation: a decline of about 27% is expected by 2024. The island continues to be weighed down by last year’s negative dynamics associated with seismic activity, cancellations and a deterioration in the perception of direction.

Athens News previously wrote about mass cancellations of bookings in the Cyclades amid seismic activity and anxiety around Santorini. Mass cancellations: what’s happening in the Cyclades.

Northern Greece: borders, the Balkans and expensive logistics

In Halkidiki, the season started weakly: the average occupancy was 60–65% compared to 75% a year earlier. In June it rose to 75%, but was still behind last year’s 85%. July shows about 70% occupancy with an upward trend and last minute growth after the heat in Europe.

For Northern Greece, queues at land borders remain a serious problem, especially in the Eurozones, where biometric checks delay tourists from countries outside EU. For destinations that depend on motor tourism from the Balkans and Central Europe, this is not a small thing, but a direct blow to competitiveness.

The situation is similar in Pieria: the season is not a failure, but it does not look strong either. Demand is uneven, tourist spending remains low, and flows from Greece, the Balkans and Central Europe are weaker than expected.

Peloponnese: they come, but spend less nights

In the Peloponnese, May-June showed a slight decrease. There is satisfactory activity for July-August, but with an important caveat: tourists spend fewer nights per person.

According to the head of the Peloponnese Tourism Organization Konstantinos Marinakosthis applies to both Greek and foreign tourists. The markets of Germany, Italy, and the UK are more active; there is movement from the USA. But the outcome of the season will depend on whether it will be possible to fill the additional seats provided by low-cost carriers through Kalamata airport.

Marinakos describes the season as one of sustainability rather than high profitability. That is, the business will most likely survive. But what remains in the cash register after expenses may turn out to be modest. The most Greek formula for success: having survived means you have almost won.

Main conclusion

Greek tourism in 2026 remains strong, but becomes less convenient for simple assessments. An increase in air arrivals no longer guarantees an increase in profits. More tourists doesn’t always mean more money. And the high season is increasingly decided not in advance, but in the last week before the trip.

If last minute bookings pick up, Greece could close the year with record numbers again. But behind this record will be hidden the different speeds of the regions, the pressure of short-term rentals, rising costs for hoteliers, more cautious tourists and the increasingly fragile infrastructure of popular destinations.

That is why the real question of the season is no longer “how many tourists have arrived.” The question is: how much did they spend, where did they stay and what was left in the business’s cash register after salaries, energy, taxes and the endless race for the last booking.

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