UN warns of El Niño strengthening: the world faces new heat waves, droughts and downpours

The World Meteorological Organization warns of rapid intensification of the El Niño climate phenomenon, which has already formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and can be noticeably influence the weatherin the coming months.

According to the WMO forecast, it is likely to reach a severe phase between July and September 2026, increasing the likelihood of heat waves, droughts, heavy rains and floods in different parts of the world. This is stated in the latest WMO message.

El Niño, or the warm phase of the ENSO climate system, occurs when the surface waters of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are abnormally heated. This changes the direction and strength of trade winds, disrupts the usual distribution of precipitation and affects the weather far beyond the ocean itself.

According to NOAA Climate Prediction CenterEl Niño conditions are already underway and are forecast to intensify through at least the 2026-2027 winter in the Northern Hemisphere. American meteorologists note that the current episode may be among the largest in the entire period of systemic observations since 1950.

What exactly does the WMO forecast?

According to the June WMO bulletin, the probability of El Niño occurring in June–August was estimated at 80%, and the probability of its persistence until at least November was greater than 90%. The organization’s latest update indicates a rapid transition to a strong phase in July-September. The multi-model mean sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 zone may approach +2°C. WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update

However, the WMO specifically emphasizes that a strong El Niño does not mean that the same effects will necessarily manifest themselves everywhere. It only significantly increases the likelihood of certain weather scenarios. Climate does not give out accurate forecasts by region, it gives out increased odds. And then people are still surprised when the weather behaves like the weather.

Where are droughts likely and where are rainfalls likely?

During July–September, increased chances of precipitation are expected in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Drier conditions are likely across large parts of Australia, the Indian subcontinent and parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, according to the WMO.

For East Africa, parts of South Asia, Indonesia and Australia, El Niño has traditionally been associated with the risk of rainfall deficits, drought and problems for agriculture. In other regions, including parts of the Americas and the eastern Horn of Africa, it is capable of increasing the likelihood of heavy rainfall and flooding. Such connections don’t work like a button, but meteorologists take them into account when making seasonal forecasts and risk planning.

Food and Humanitarian Network FEWS NET Already, El Niño could increase weather risks in vulnerable regions where drought, flooding, conflict and rising food prices already add up to a grim combination.

What does this mean for Europe

For Europe, the impact of El Niño is usually less direct and less predictable than for the tropics and the Pacific. WMO explicitly notes that the effects of ENSO are weaker here and are more dependent on other atmospheric processes, including the state of the North Atlantic, jet streams and regional anticyclones.

Seasonal models allow for differences in rainfall patterns between north and south Europe, but to speak of a guaranteed “rainy Southern Europe” or “dry Northern Europe” would be too bold. For Greece and the Eastern Mediterranean it is more important to follow the local forecasts of ΕΜΥ and the European service Copernicusand not make plans for the fall based on the word El Niño in the title.

Why is the alarm sounding now?

El Niño itself is a natural part of the climate system and recurs irregularly, usually every two to seven years. But its consequences are amplified in an already warmer climate: heat waves start from a higher temperature “base,” droughts deplete water resources more quickly, and heavy rainfall more often leads to devastating consequences.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on countries to view El Niño’s development as a serious warning and strengthen early warning systems. He said preparations should include protecting communities from heat, plans for drought and measures to reduce damage from rainfall and flooding. Reported this Reuters.

The main conclusion is simple: El Niño does not mean that tomorrow the whole world will simultaneously be underwater or turn into a desert. But it makes extreme weather scenarios more likely. This is a reason for the authorities to prepare healthcare, water supply and civil protection systems. For ordinary people, this is a reason not to perceive warnings about heat, drought or heavy rainfall as just another noise that can be scrolled through between advertising and a horoscope forecast.

Sources: WMO, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, FEWS NET, Reuters.

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