Europe risks entering the winter of 2026-2027 with the lowest levels of gas reserves in at least 15 years. Wood Mackenzie estimates that European storage facilities could complete the injection season with only 76% fillingwhich would be the weakest result since 2011.
After a cold winter, European storage facilities began the replenishment season at approximately 28% filling. For comparison: in previous years EU was aiming to bring stock levels to around 90% as underground storage supplies up to a third of winter gas demand.
Now Europe is struggling to pump in fuel amid an unstable LNG market, supply disruptions across the Strait of Hormuz, export problems from Qatar and the UAE, and increased competition from Asian buyers.
76% is not a disaster, but the safety margin is sharply reduced
The 76% level alone does not mean that Europe will be left without gas. But it leaves much less room for error. A cold winter, a new escalation in the Middle East, a breakdown in LNG infrastructure or a surge in demand in Asia can quickly push prices up.
The situation is especially alarming because Europe has already reduced its dependence on Russian pipeline gas, but has not received a full-fledged cheap alternative. Russian fuel is being replaced by more expensive LNG, which depends on tankers, ports, insurance, shipping routes and the political situation in the Persian Gulf.
Russian gas is formally leaving, but physically remains
Russian gas did not disappear from Europe on its own. It continues to flow through TurkStream to Greece, Hungary, Slovakia and other countries in the region. After passing through Turkey, gas does not become Turkish or Azerbaijani: the route changes, but not the origin of the fuel.
For Greece this is a particularly sensitive topic. The country is simultaneously developing LNG terminals, interconnectors and the role of an energy hub in the Balkans, but remains dependent on imported gas. In 2025, the total demand for natural gas in Greece will reach 78.75 TWhan increase of 14% compared to the previous year. The main entry point remained Sidirokastro, through which gas passes from the north, including supplies along the Turkish route.
The EU has already approved a complete ban on the import of Russian LNG from the beginning of 2027 and pipeline gas from the fall of 2027. Legally, the decision has been made. But a legal ban and the physical readiness of the market to survive it without a new price shock are not the same thing.
American LNG: an alternative with conditions
The United States has become one of the main suppliers of LNG to Europe, but American exporters do not work on the principle of political friendship. To launch new projects, they require long-term contracts of 10, 15 or 20 years.
For European buyers this is a tough choice. Either sign multi-year agreements and lock in dependence on gas for decades, or remain on the spot market and fight for cargo with Asia every season. It is especially unpleasant that Greece in the first half of 2025 received about 84% of your LNG from the USA.
Europe is trying to simultaneously abandon Russian gas, avoid falling into new dependence on the United States, and fulfill climate obligations. On paper it looks like a strategy. On the market, it looks like trying to get out of a plane without opening the door or putting on a parachute.
Iranian factor
Instability around Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, Israel and Lebanon makes the European calculus even more fragile. About a fifth of global LNG exports typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Any new escalation, attacks on infrastructure, disruptions to shipping or increases in insurance rates will immediately affect the price of gas in Europe.
Even a temporary reduction in the intensity of hostilities does not guarantee sustainability. After the end of the World Cup, political and military decisions in the Middle East may become tougher again, and the LNG market reacts too quickly to any threat to consider the current pause a sustainable norm.
What does this mean for Greece
For Greece, rising gas prices mean pressure on the cost of electricity, heating and industrial products. Gas remains an important source for power plants, large enterprises and some household consumption.
The country has a terminal in Revytussa, new facilities in Alexandroupolis and opportunities for supplies to the Balkans. But infrastructure provides routes, not cheap fuel. When the world’s LNG becomes more expensive, Greece gets the opportunity to buy gas, but does not get the right to buy it cheap.
Editorial comment
The European energy strategy increasingly looks like an attempt to replace one dependency with another, but to do so with applause. Russian gas has been declared politically toxic, American LNG requires multi-year contracts, Qatar is dependent on Hormuz, and the market remains hostage to wars and sea routes.
For countries like Greece, Hungary and Slovakia, the issue is not limited to slogans about independence. Gas is needed by power plants, industry, heating and business. It cannot be replaced by a press release from the European Commission or another summit on diversification.
The problem is not that Europe needs diversification. It is necessary. The problem is that the EU is trying to implement it at the same time as sanctions, war, supply shortages, the Gulf crisis and fear of long-term contracts. In such a situation, any cold January may turn out to be a more influential politician than a whole group of European commissioners.
P.S
European Commission decisions often look different from the top floors than from the bottom. During the recent heatwave, the Brussels Berlaymont building cut off air conditioning on the first seven floors, where thousands of regular employees work. At the same time, the floors above, where the offices of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Commissioners are located, continued to cool.
Formally, it was a question of technical overload of the system. But the symbolism turned out to be too precise to be missed: restrictions and “necessary savings” begin where ordinary employees sit, and the upper floors continue to live in climatic comfort.
This is, perhaps, the whole essence of European energy policy in recent years: the population is asked to get used to expensive electricity, the risk of interruptions, “necessary savings” and new restrictions, while those who make these decisions continue to work in the cold.
For millions of Europeans, the energy transition means bills that are freezing without any air conditioning. For the Brussels leadership – climate comfort on the upper floors. Formally, this can be attributed to the technical features of the building. In fact, this is an all too accurate metaphor for a system in which the consequences of one’s own decisions always fall on those who are not at the control buttons.
The lower floors need to save and endure. The top ones are to explain why this is necessary. And then wonder why more and more Europeans stop believing in stories about “solidarity”, “just transition” and equal rules for all.
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