ND is at a dangerous point: scandals are dragging the party down

New Democracy remains first in the polls, but scandals, new parties and a possible project Samaras are increasingly threatening its political control.

Against the backdrop of scandals, economic discontent, the return Alexis Tsipraspolitical project Maria Karistianu and a possible new movement Antonis Samaras for the party Kyriakos Mitsotakis It is becoming more and more important not the dream of an absolute majority, but a much more mundane task: not to fall below the critical level 25%.

Briefly about the article

• New Democracy is still in the lead, but its result in a number of polls remains below 30%.
• Plank 25% is of particular importance: according to the current system, the winning party receives a minimum bonus 20 seats exactly from this level.
• New games Alexis Tsipras And Maria Karistianu change the balance in the opposition and select the protest electorate.
• Possible return Antonis Samaras with the new right project can hit the right flank New Democracy.
• Wiretapping scandals OPECPEPEagricultural payments, housing, energy and data centers create a feeling of accumulated fatigue from power.

Why 25% has become the new line of defense

A few months ago in New Democracy one could still talk about the struggle for an independent majority. Now this goal looks less and less realistic. The main question becomes whether the party can stay high enough to maintain the political initiative after the elections.

Plank 25% this is not accidental. According to the current system of enhanced proportionality, the party that takes first place receives a bonus 20 seatsif dials 25%. Further, the bonus grows by one mandate for every additional 0.5 percentage point and can reach 50 seats at about 40%. I wrote about this in detail before the 2023 elections. Kathimerini.

That’s why the fall is lower 25% it would be for ND not just a bad result, but a strategic defeat. Without the bonus, the winning party loses the ability to impose an agenda, and government formation becomes an equation with several unknowns and political players who today look anything but tame.

Polls: there is leadership, there is no confidence

Recent measurements show a dual picture. On the one side, New Democracy remains first. On the other hand, its indicators no longer have anything in common with the result of 2023, when the party received more than 40%.

According to the survey Metron Analysis For MEGApublished June 4, 2026, New Democracy is on the level 28.5% in the intention of voting, and the party Alexis Tsipras ΕΛ.Α.Σ. is fixed in second place with 15.2%. PASOK goes down to 11.2%A “Hope for Democracy” Maria Karistianu receives 10.4%. Parapolitika / Metron Analysis

Survey Pulsefeatured on SKAIgives ND 29.5% in voting evaluation, ΕΛ.Α.Σ. Tsiprasa – 15.5%A PASOK — 11.5%. At the same time Karystiana is already almost catching up with PASOK, and its party receives a double-digit result in the vote estimate.

But there are also measurements that are less comfortable for the authorities. Kathimerinianalyzing the study Pulse for May, indicated that in the intention of voting New Democracy was fixed at the level 24%that is, already below the psychological and institutional bar 25%. It was also noted that the government is under pressure from the consequences of scandals with OPECPEPE and wiretapping, as well as the economic anxiety of citizens.

Tsipras and Karystiano change the opposition map

Return Alexis Tsipras with a new party ΕΛ.Α.Σ. became one of the main factors in the restructuring of the political field. Reuters notes that his project is unlikely to be directly dumped Mitsotakisbut is capable of seriously reformatting the fragmented opposition and making it more difficult for ND the task of maintaining the majority. Reuters

According to Reuters, one estimate published in May was New Democracy 26.1%parties Tsipras — 12.8%which already brought her to second place, ahead PASOK and project Karystiana. This is not a threat to an immediate change of power, but it is a blow to the usual structure: Mitsotakis there was no longer a comfortable oppositional desert in which he could appear to be the only adult in the room.

Maria Caristianuwho came into politics out of tragedy Tempioccupies a different niche. Her project is fueled not by party nostalgia, but by moral protest, distrust of institutions and a feeling that the state is hiding responsibility. That is why its electoral base may turn out to be especially unpleasant for the authorities: it is not just a left, right or center voice, but a voice of resentment, pain and mistrust.

Samaras factor: the right hand is still ahead

Particular threat to New Democracy — the possible emergence of a new right-wing project Antonis Samaras. This factor has not yet fully materialized, but is already influencing calculations within the right camp.

Polls that model the emergence of Samaras’s party show that it can take votes primarily from the right and patriotic flank. Even if direct outflow from ND turns out to be limited, the very fact of the emergence of such a project creates a new problem for Mitsotakis: not just criticism arises from the right, but a political address for dissatisfied conservative voters.

That is why the main fear ND today is not only about growth Tsipras or Karystiana. The fear is that the party will begin to lose in several directions simultaneously: the center – to Tsipras and Karystian, the right flank – to Samaras and other right-wing forces, the provinces – due to agrarian and property issues, the middle class – due to the high cost of housing.

Scandals do not go away from the agenda

What is especially dangerous for the government is that scandals do not dissolve over time. On the contrary, they continue to return to the public agenda, sometimes through new testimony, statements and parliamentary initiatives.

The case of wiretaps and Predator remains a political wound. New announcements around the role Intellexa, Tala Diliana and the question of who exactly used the spyware again raises the issue of state responsibility. The authorities can say as much as they want that everything is being investigated, but for a significant part of society it sounds like an old record with a stuck needle.

Scandal OPECPEPE and problems with agricultural subsidies are hitting other audiences—the provinces and the rural world. Thousands of producers continue to wait for payments, and government rhetoric about supporting the primary sector increasingly looks like a storefront without a warehouse outside the door.

Added to this are controversial urban planning and property initiatives, fears of small property owners, discussions of data centers consuming huge amounts of energy and water, high cost pressures, fatigue in tourism and declining consumption. Each topic separately does not necessarily bring down the government. But together they create a sense of power that does not solve problems, but packages them into press releases.

Why is talk about early elections intensifying?

In such a climate, talk about possible early elections does not seem accidental. If time works against the authorities, they are tempted to go to the polls earlier, before the fall has yet become a collapse.

For Megaro Maximo The dilemma is unpleasant. To wait means to risk new scandals, the growth of Samaras, the strengthening of Karystianu and the consolidation of Tsipras in second place. To go earlier is to acknowledge that the political cycle is compressing and the government no longer controls the pace of events.

The most dangerous thing for Mitsotakis – loss of the image of inevitability. In 2023 New Democracy looked like a party without an alternative. In 2026, it is still the first, but no longer the only point of power assembly. And this psychologically changes everything.

ND loses simultaneously from the right and from the center

Political geography problems for New Democracy simple and unpleasant. On the right, there is growing irritation over issues of nationality politics, migration, relations with Turkey, the pace of reform and a sense of ideological vagueness. The center is tired of scandals, high costs, institutional closeness and a sense of aristocratic isolation from power.

The middle class, which was the main social engine of Mitsotakis’s victories, is increasingly faced with housing, prices, tax pressure and the feeling that macroeconomic gains are slipping past their wallets. The province is angry about subsidies, infrastructure and the fact that many decisions are made in Athens as if there were an administrative desert outside Kifissia.

As a result, ND risks finding itself in a situation where it still wins first place, but no longer receives the mandate to govern comfortably. And first place without real control is not a victory, but a beautifully presented problem.

The main question

Can the government Kyriakos Mitsotakis reverse the negative trend before the elections? Theoretically, yes. In practice, for this you need not just change communication, but close real fronts: subsidies, institutional transparency, housing, high prices, trust in justice, attitude towards the province and small property owners.

The problem is that the authorities are more often trying not to solve crises, but to manage their perception. But perception can be corrected once, twice, three times. When scandals become a constant background, PR ceases to be a cure and turns into cosmetics for political exhaustion.

That is why the current task New Democracy it’s no longer about recapturing the magic of 2023. Its task is more modest and difficult: not to fall below a level after which even first place will no longer give political power.

Editorial comment

New Democracy still remains the first party in the country, but this leadership increasingly resembles not a confident movement towards victory, but trying to stay on a slippery slope. An independent majority already looks almost unattainable, and the bar 25% turns into a new line of defense.

Main problem Mitsotakis not just in polls. The problem is that the government has lost its political ease. Each new topic wiretapping, OPECPEPE, subsidies, housing, data centers, tourism, high prices – falls on the already accumulated fatigue of society. And even if the government is still able to win elections, it no longer looks like the force that controls the future.

Appearance Tsipras, Karystiana and possible project Samaras create for ND the worst combination: pressure from the left, from the center, from the moral protest field and from the right. This is not a united front against the government, but several different cracks in one wall. But sometimes a wall falls not from one blow, but from the fact that the cracks finally meet.

If the party Mitsotakis will go lower 25%she risks losing not only the bonus of seats, but also the political initiative. And without initiative, even first place can become a trap: you formally won, but you can no longer control. For a party accustomed to speaking in the name of stability, this is the most dangerous scenario.

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