Israel and Lebanon agreed on the framework of the truce, but behind diplomacy there is severe pressure Trump on Netanyahu due to threats of attacks on Beirut.
Formally, we are talking about creating “pilot zones” in southern Lebanon, where exclusive control should be obtained Lebanese army. In practice, this diplomatic construction appeared after Washington pulled back sharply Benjamin Netanyahuwarning: further escalation in Lebanon is hitting not only Beirut, but also American strategy in the region.
According to Reutersthe agreement was reached after negotiations in Washington. The joint statement emphasizes that the truce depends on a complete cessation attacks from the supported Iran Hezbollah and the withdrawal of its fighters from the area south of the river Litani.
It is here that the main weakness of the entire scheme is hidden. Hezbollah did not participate in the negotiations and has already rejected the plan, calling it a threat to sovereignty Lebanon. That is Israel and the Lebanese government negotiate a ceasefire with a force that does not sit at the negotiating table and does not promise to honor the terms. Diplomacy, of course, loves beautiful formulas, but rockets usually read them poorly.
Trump yelled at Netanyahu
One of the main reasons why Netanyahu found himself forced to move to a negotiating framework, there was direct pressure from Donald Trump. According to Axiosrelations between the two leaders have sharply deteriorated over the Lebanese front and Israeli plans to expand strikes, including possible attacks on Beirut.
Axios sources describe the conversation Trump With Netanyahu How extremely hard. The American president, according to them, was outraged by the threat of strikes on Beiruta large number of civilian deaths and the practice of destroying entire buildings in order to eliminate individual commanders Hezbollah. For Washington This has become no longer an Israeli self-defense operation, but a problem that threatens to undermine the entire American line in the Middle East.
The main irritant for Trump – risk of failure of negotiations with Iran and further international isolation Israel. If the Israeli army strikes again Beirutregional escalation could get out of control, and the White House will receive not a diplomatic victory, but another fire that will have to be extinguished with American hands.
Therefore, the negotiations were not a gesture of goodwill Netanyahuand the result of a hard signal from Washington. The American administration has actually made it clear: Israel can put pressure on Hezbollahbut has no right to disrupt the larger US game around Iran. For Netanyahuaccustomed to bargaining with allies almost as hard as with enemies, this is a painful reminder that even the closest ally is not always willing to pay for someone else’s escalation.
What are “pilot zones”
The essence of the agreement is the creation in the south Lebanon special “pilot zones”where hostilities must cease and control will pass to Lebanese army. There should be no armed non-state actors in these areas, first of all Hezbollah.
According to The Times of Israelthis model involves the gradual deployment of Lebanese security forces in separate zones with the subsequent expansion of the ceasefire. On paper, everything looks almost reasonable: Israel reduces shock Lebanon returns state control, Hezbollah moves away from the border.
But the reality is Lebanon has long been arranged differently. Hezbollah is not just an armed group on the map. It is a political, military and social structure deeply embedded in the country. The Lebanese state can sign statements, but the question is whether it can really dislodge Hezbollah from the south of the country. So far the answer seems to be negative.
There is a truce, but the war is not over
Formally, the ceasefire has been in force since April, but on the ground it looks more like a war with diplomatic pauses. Israel continued attacks on the south LebanonA Hezbollah continued attacks on Israeli territory.
According to Reuters, Hezbollah rejected the new American plan, and Israel at the same time reserved the right to continue military operations in Lebanon. This is no longer a truce in the classical sense, but a fragile frame where each side prepares in advance an explanation for why it started shooting again.
Israeli logic is clear: without displacement Hezbollah From the northern border, the security of residents of the north of the country cannot be restored. The Lebanese logic is also obvious: constant attacks on its territory turn the country’s sovereignty into political decoration. And between them stands Hezbollahfor which disarmament or withdrawal from the border would mean the loss of the status of a resistance force.
Why is Washington rushing the deal?
For USA the Lebanese direction became a threat to the larger regional construct. After the war USA, Israel And Iran Washington is trying to keep the situation from spreading throughout the Middle East. New front in Lebanon could derail negotiations with Tehranstrengthen the Iranian bloc and completely ruin the international position Israel.
That’s why Trumpdespite the traditionally strong support for Israel, this time actually pulled the brakes. The White House needs a controlled de-escalation, not a strike against Beirutafter which the entire diplomatic structure around Iran will begin to crumble faster than the next peace plan in the region.
For Netanyahu This is an unpleasant fork in the road. Continued strikes provide a show of strength within Israel, especially amid criticism from the right. But the conflict with Trump may cost more: the Israeli prime minister already depends on American military, diplomatic and political support. When a key ally becomes publicly irritated, the room for maneuver narrows sharply.
Direct dialogue after decades of hostility
Israel And Lebanon have no diplomatic relations and have never concluded a full-fledged peace treaty. Therefore, the negotiations themselves Washington became an important event: the parties are conducting a direct political dialogue for the first time in decades, albeit under close American supervision.
Now, according to media reports, the fourth round of consultations is taking place. In June, the parties are expected to continue discussing further steps. In the ideal American version, the south Lebanon gradually comes under the control of the state army, and Hezbollah moves away from the border. In the real Middle Eastern version, each of these phrases requires a separate miracle, and miracles in diplomacy, as we know, are intermittent.
The main question is not whether the parties signed another statement. The main question is who will be able to ensure its implementation on earth. IN Lebanon This has always been a key problem: the state is formally responsible for the territory, but does not always control the weapons that determine war and peace in this territory.
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