Pulse: three opposition parties can bypass New Democracy

New Pulse survey records major shifts in the Greek political scene after the emergence of new party projects Alexis Tsipras And Maria Karistianu.

According to voting estimates with the distribution of the undecided, New Democracy retains first place with 29.5%however, the three opposition forces – ΕΛ.Α.Σ., PASOK And “Elpida for Democracy” – in total they gain about 38%.

According to survey data Pulse For ΣΚΑΪpublished by Greek media, ΕΛ.Α.Σ. Alexis Tsipras goes to 15.5% in the voting assessment, taking second place. PASOK – KINAL receives 11.5%and the party “Elpida for Democracy” by Maria Caristianou — 11%. Together these three forces form the political mass in 38%which theoretically puts them above the result New Democracy.

The full voting evaluation data is as follows: New Democracy — 29.5%, ΕΛ.Α.Σ. — 15.5%, PASOK — 11.5%, “Elpida for Democracy” — 11%, CNG — 7%, Greek solution — 6.5%, Freedom Course — 5%, Voice of Reason — 3.5%, Measure25 — 3%, SYRIZA — 2.5%.

It is important, however, not to confuse arithmetic with political reality. Amount in 38% does not automatically mean the creation of a coalition. It only shows that the space for broad opposition has become noticeably denser after the emergence of new players. If earlier New Democracy could rely on the fragmentation of rivals, now the situation is becoming less convenient for Megaro Maximo.

Coalition scenario

Greek media are already discussing the scenario of possible post-election cooperation between ΕΛ.Α.Σ., PASOK And “Elpida”. On paper, this option looks logical: all three forces are in the opposition field and can lay claim to voters who are disappointed both in the government and in the old party system.

However, between Alexis Tsipras and management PASOK Political distrust persists. Proposal from the Mayor of Athens Haris Doukas discuss in advance programmatic overlaps between PASOK And ΕΛ.Α.Σ. has already caused reaction and controversy within the opposition space. As noted CNN Greecethe very idea of ​​cooperation is still meeting resistance, although the new sociological background makes such conversations inevitable.

In this scheme the party Maria Karistianu can become not just a third participant, but a kind of connecting force. Her project appeals not only to the traditional left or centrist audience, but also to a broader protest electorate, for which the main thing is not party discipline, but a demand for justice, responsibility and punishment for political irresponsibility.

That’s why “Elpida for Democracy” may prove to be a particularly inconvenient player for older parties. She doesn’t fit completely into the scheme PASOKnor to the legacy SYRIZAnor into classic right-wing patriotic rhetoric. This hybrid nature is both its strength and weakness: it expands its field of influence, but complicates future agreements.

What does this mean for New Democracy?

New Democracy is still the first batch and this cannot be ignored. But a new poll shows her dominance doesn’t look as comfortable as it once did. If several opposition centers manage not to destroy each other in the fight for second place, but at least come to a minimal agreement after the elections, the ruling party may face much more complex parliamentary arithmetic.

A separate indicator is the attitude of voters New Democracy to a coalition scenario. According to the survey, a significant part of the ruling party’s supporters already allow their party to participate in a cooperation government. This means that even within the pro-government electorate there is a growing understanding: the era of confident one-party power may not be as eternal as its architects would like.

For Megaro Maximo this is an unpleasant signal. The government is still ahead, but the political field around it is beginning to thicken. And if previously the fragmentation of the opposition was the main gift to the government, now new parties can turn this gift into a problem.

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