Greece is again at the bottom of expectations: prices are rising, incomes are melting

ECB study showed: the Greeks feel inflation at the level 10.2% and remain the most pessimistic consumers in the eurozone.

Greece once again stands out in the eurozone – and again not in a good way. New research European Central Bank (ECB) on consumer expectations shows that Greek households are worse off in inflation perceptions, income expectations and spending forecasts. According to the analysis, in April the so-called “inflationary blow to the wallet” in Greece reached 10.2%.

Official release ECB based on the results of April 2026 shows that in the euro area the median inflation estimate over the past 12 months has risen to 4% against 3.5% in March. At the same time, inflation expectations for the next 12 months remained at 4%and three-year expectations decreased slightly – to 2.9%. This is stated in ECB consumer expectations survey.

But the Greek picture looks much worse than the eurozone average. According to the data provided, in Greece, perceived inflation over the past 12 months amounted to 10.2%. In other words, Greeks are experiencing price increases that are more than double the eurozone average and roughly double the official consumer price index.

This is not just “consumer psychology,” as it is sometimes convenient to explain in offices. Greek households are really squeezed between expensive housing, expensive food and weak incomes. The text of the study highlights that housing costs in Greece absorb approximately 36% income against 19.2% on average EU. Add to this the almost doubling of prices for fresh, unprocessed food, and it becomes clear why official statistics and people’s perceptions live in different universes.

The poor feel inflation more strongly

The situation is especially difficult for households with low and middle incomes. They are the ones who have worsened income expectations the most and at the same time expect further growth in expenses. For the poorest households, housing and food take up almost 56% income. Therefore, for them, inflation is not an abstract macroeconomic indicator, but a daily question: what to buy today and what to give up tomorrow.

Members in lower income groups perceive inflation to be higher on average than wealthier consumers, according to ECB data for the eurozone. The provided Greek analysis specifically notes that for the lower income groups, “wallet inflation” over the previous year increased to 4.9%while for the 20% richest households – up to 3.2%. The Greek case looks even sharper: the country finds itself in a worse position according to the totality of expectations.

Greeks expect almost 10% inflation

If on average for the 11 countries studied ECBinflation expectations for the next 12 months remained at 4%then in Greece consumers expect inflation to be around 9.9%. In March the figure was 10%and in February – 5.2%. That is, after the new price shock, the inflation expectations of the Greeks actually almost doubled.

This gap between Greece and the rest of the eurozone shows how vulnerable the household economy remains. When people see prices for food, energy, rent and basic services rising faster than income, they stop believing the pretty averages. The average temperature in a hospital is, of course, useful for reporting, but not for those who count their change in the supermarket every day.

Income down, expenses up

In the euro area, nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months fell to 0.8% With 1.2% in March. At the same time, perceived spending growth over the previous 12 months increased to 5.3%and the expected increase in expenses for the next year is up to 4.3%. For an ordinary household, this sounds simple: income is almost stagnant, expenses continue to creep up.

In Greece the situation is even worse. Greek consumers expect nominal income to decline by -1.3%. At the same time, perceived expenses over the past year increased by 10.2%and next year the Greeks expect a new increase in spending on 9.1% against 7.7% in March.

This is the main social trap: citizens do not expect an increase in well-being, but a further rise in the cost of living. And the more authorities talk about “stability” and “positive dynamics,” the more it diverges from what people see in bills, checks and rent payments.

Economy: Greeks expect worsening

According to ECBexpectations for economic growth in the eurozone have become more negative: consumers expect a decline by -2.2% against -2.1% a month earlier. Expected unemployment over the 12-month horizon decreased slightly – to 11.2% With 11.3%.

The Greeks are also among the most pessimistic here. According to the data provided, they expect the economic situation to worsen in -5.7%. The expected unemployment rate in Greece is 15.3%. This is lower than the March figure 16.7%but still remains one of the highest in the eurozone – second after Finlandwhere the indicator reaches 15.7%.

Editorial comment

Study ECB unpleasant not because it shows the bad mood of the Greeks. Mood is a consequence. Another thing is unpleasant: Greek households live in an economy where official statistics and the real feeling of prices are increasingly at odds. People can talk all they want about GDP growth, investment and “European sustainability”, but if housing, food and bills eat up an ever-increasing share of income, such rhetoric sounds like a mockery.

The main problem of Greece today is not only inflation as a number. The main problem is the cost structure. When a significant portion of income is spent on housing and basic products, even a moderate increase in prices turns into a social blow. And for the poor and middle strata this blow is felt the most. Not because they understand economics worse, but because they simply have less room for maneuver.

Therefore, Greek consumer pessimism is not a whim or a “national habit of complaining,” as those who have not lived on a regular salary for a long time like to explain. This is a reaction to a reality in which costs are rising faster than income, housing is becoming more difficult, and the government continues to pretend that the problem is being solved with press releases. The paper endures. Wallet – no.

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