Lithuania threatened to bomb Kaliningrad, Moscow pointed to nuclear doctrine

Kestutis Budrys Konstantin Sednev / Postimees Grupp / Scanpix / LETA

Chapter Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania declared the ability NATO destroy Russian bases in Kaliningrad. Moscow responded with threats of nuclear doctrine.

Chapter Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania Kestutis Budrys stated that NATO capable of destroying Russian targets if necessary Air defense and missile bases in Kaliningrad region. In Moscow they called this madness and in response they again recalled Russian nuclear doctrine.

Interview Budrys published in a Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung. The Lithuanian minister spoke about growing threats in the region, a lack of long-range air defense, drone strikes and Russian military aircraft, which, according to him, sometimes fly over Lithuania with their transponders turned off.

Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and growing nervousness in the Baltic region, such statements no longer sound like the usual diplomatic toughness. This is the language of direct military warning. Moreover, what was said not by a general in a closed headquarters, but by the country’s Minister of Foreign Affairs NATO.

What Budrys said

The most resonant part of the interview was the phrase about Kaliningrad region – Russian enclave between Lithuania And Poland. Budrys stated that the allies should show Moscow the ability to break into this “small fortress” and, if necessary, destroy Russian air defense facilities and missile bases located there.

It’s easy to say this phrase “signal of deterrence” it would be too convenient. Essentially this is statement of readiness to strike Russian military infrastructure in Kaliningrad. Yes, in logic NATO this can be given as a warning: do not test the strength of the eastern flank of the alliance. But For Moscow, this formulation sounds like a direct threat.

Russian propaganda, of course, immediately expanded this phrase into the version that NATO allegedly already preparing to attack Kaliningrad. But we must admit honestly: the source material for such hysteria was provided by Budris. When a minister talks about ability “raze to the ground” military bases of a neighboring nuclear power, this is not subtle diplomacy. This is already a game on the edge.

Moscow responded as usual: with a nuclear baton

Russia’s reaction was predictable. Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov called the statement of the Lithuanian minister “on the verge of madness”. Official Representative Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Maria Zakharova described him as “suicidal paranoia”.

Russian media went even further: some started talking about “NATO’s call to attack Kaliningrad”others – about “dreams” Vilnius to take back the Russian enclave. The usual insults towards the Baltic countries were also used. The level of discussion, as usual, quickly descended to where diplomacy no longer even spent the night.

Head of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs Leonid Slutsky stated that in the event of an attack NATO on Kaliningrad “will inevitably come into effect” Russian military and nuclear doctrines. That is, Moscow again brought out its main argument: if the situation becomes unpleasant, put the nuclear card on the table and see who blinks first.

Why does Baltia speak so harshly?

For Lithuania, Latvia And Estonia The Russian threat is not abstract. These countries live next to Kaliningrad, Belarus and the war in Ukraine. After 2022, their fears cannot simply be attributed to hysteria: the region has indeed become much more dangerous.

But Baltic politicians have another line of behavior: speak as loudly as possible in order to constantly maintain attention NATO, EU and the USA. The more alarming the rhetoric, the easier it is to demand more air defense, more troops, more money for defense and more political attention. Small states cannot be pressed by the size of their army or economy, so pressuring with an agenda.

This does not mean that the threat is made up. But the real threat in the region is often also turned into political capital. The Baltics act as a panic button for the alliance. The problem is that If you hit this button too long with your fist, one day someone might decide that the alarm has already gone into combat mode.

Drones and the Dangerous Gray Zone

The situation is aggravated by incidents with drones. In recent days, reports of drone flights have come from Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia And Finland. In some cases, alarms were announced and aircraft were scrambled NATOand in Lithuania the country’s leadership was even in hiding.

Russia, for its part, claims that the Baltic countries allegedly provide Ukraine with air corridors or can even be used to launch Ukrainian drones. The Baltic authorities deny these accusations. But this is where the most dangerous area of ​​uncertainty arises.

If Moscow declares that from the territory of the country NATO Ukrainian drones were launched or an attack on Russia took place through its airspace, it will try to present a possible strike not as an attack on the alliance, but How “retaliatory measure” on the object involved in the attack. This does not eliminate the risks for Russia, but it sharply complicates the political response NATO.

The fifth article is not a magic button

This is the main risk for the Baltic countries. Article 5 of NATO is not an automatic button to start a world war. It triggers a collective reaction mechanism, but each ally determines specific measures for himself.

If the strike is on the territory of the country NATO will be obvious Russian aggression, the alliance’s reaction could be harsh and fast. But if the situation turns out to be murky – with drones, disputed routes, accusations, denials and the question of the possible involvement of the Baltic itself – inside NATO almost inevitable consultations will beginand not an instant march of armies to Kaliningrad.

It is precisely this gray zone that Moscow can count on. She will say: “This is not an attack on NATO, this is a response to the infrastructure associated with the attack on Russia”. And then what will begin is not a heroic poster about collective defense, but heavy political trade between the capitals of the alliance. The world in general is much less automatic than politicians like to promise from the stands.

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