The economy is hitting the government: prices will be decided by elections

Greek economy on paper it shows growth, ratings and budgetary success, but for millions of citizens the main indicator remains much simpler: whether the salary is enough until the end of the month.

And it is this gap between government statistics and real life that could be the deciding factor in the next election.

Key Findings

• Inflationhigh prices and the housing crisis are becoming the main political threat to the government Kyriakos Mitsotakis And New Democracy.
• In April 2026 inflation in Greece reached 5.4%and rising prices for fuel, transport, food and housing continue to put pressure on households.
• Greece remains one of the most vulnerable countries EU on risk of poverty and social exclusion: according to Eurostatthe indicator is 27.5%.
• The country’s housing burden remains critical: a significant proportion of households spend too large a share of their income on rent, loans and utility costs.
• The government’s policy problem is that macroeconomic gains have not translated into tangible improvements in life for the middle and lower income classes.

Government of Kyriakos Mitsotakis continues to talk about growth, investment rating, budget surpluses and stability. But the daily reality for most citizens looks different: expensive groceries, rising costs of housing, fuel, utilities and the feeling that economic recovery exists somewhere in the reports, but not in the wallet.

It is this gap that becomes politically dangerous for New Democracy. When the government convinces citizens that the country is moving in the right direction, but the citizen in the supermarket considers what to remove from the cart, there is more than just economic irritation. There is a feeling that the authorities live in another country. Perhaps in that very “Switzerland”, where, judging by the statements, Greece has almost moved, forgetting to take the population with it.

Figures that beat the government version

The most painful indicator is inflation. According to OTwith reference to Ελληνική Στατιστική Αρχή (ELSTATGreek Statistical Service), inflation in Greece in April 2026 grew to 5.4% after 3.9% in March. The main impact fell on fuel, transport and food.

Diesel fuel has risen in price by 32.4% year on year, gasoline – on 17.1%other types of fuel – on 42.4%air transportation – on 18.6%. According to ELSTATfood and non-alcoholic drinks increased by 4.4%including bread, meat, fish, dairy, eggs, fruit, coffee, cocoa and other basic categories.

For an ordinary household, these figures do not mean abstract inflation, but a very concrete choice: less meat, cheaper food, less frequent trips, be more careful with heating, postpone repairs, give up vacations. The economy may grow as a percentage, but this does not fill the refrigerator itself. It is strange that in government presentations this is still not considered a macroeconomic indicator.

Poverty and social vulnerability

Against the backdrop of talk about recovery, data on poverty looks especially painful. According to EurostatV 2025 27.5% The Greek population was at risk of poverty or social exclusion. This is the second worst indicator in EU after Bulgariawhere he composed 29%.

Average for EU at the same time amounted to 20.9%. That is, Greece is not just slightly worse than the European average. It remains in the group of countries where a significant part of society lives in a regime of constant financial instability. According to ELSTATthese data are based on a survey of household income and living conditions.

It’s an important contrast: the country is posting surpluses, credit ratings, and GDP growth, but nearly one in four people in the country remains at risk of poverty or social exclusion. For the government, this is more dangerous than any opposition criticism, because such figures are not checked in parliament, but every month at the ATM and at the cash register.

Housing crisis: Greece’s first pain

A separate problem is housing. Greece For several years now it has held one of the first places in Europe in terms of housing load. Rent, mortgages, utility bills, and energy costs eat up too much of income, especially for young families, low- and middle-wage workers, and residents of large cities.

According to EurostatGreece traditionally remains the country with the highest level of housing overburden in the EU: the share of households spending more than 40% disposable income for housing is significantly higher than the European average. That is why an increase in rent even by a few percent is perceived not as normal market dynamics, but as a direct blow to the survival of the family budget.

In Greek reality, housing has become not just a market, but a political issue. Tourism, short-term rentals, investment purchases, expensive energy, low wages and weak housing policies have combined to create a situation in which young people are increasingly unable to live on their own, families are abandoning plans, and the middle class is feeling increasingly squeezed out of normal city life.

Why macroeconomics does not save power

The government has arguments: economic growth, investment rating, unemployment reduction, budget discipline, reforms, digitalization. But these arguments only work as long as the citizen feels an improvement in his own life. If official success does not coincide with personal experience, it begins to irritate even more.

Political problem New Democracy exactly this. Some citizens may admit that the country has formally become more stable after the debt crisis. But at the same time these same people say: “We don’t see it in our pocket”. And elections, oddly enough for lovers of macroeconomic charts, are won not in spreadsheets, but in refrigerators, leases and gas bills.

In addition, the growth of government revenues against the backdrop of high prices has an unpleasant political side. High VAT and excise taxes automatically bring more money to the budget when prices rise. That is, the citizen pays more not only to businesses and suppliers, but also to the state. As a result, the government can produce good fiscal results as long as the public feels that these results are partially paid for by its own impoverishment.

Why will this be an election issue?

IN Megaro Maximou They are well aware that the economy and high prices will be the central theme of the next elections. Not foreign policy, not investment ratings, and not abstract stability, but the cost of living. Internal surveys and public research already show that irritation over prices is not a short-term blip. It stuck.

What is especially dangerous for the authorities is that discontent is growing not only among traditionally opposition voters. It affects the middle class, small businesses, private sector workers, young renters, retirees and part of the traditional electorate New Democracy. These are those groups that may not necessarily switch to one opposition party, but are capable of abandoning previous political loyalties.

Against this background, opportunities for various opposition projects are increasing – from traditional parties to new political figures and movements. For Alexis Tsipras, Antonis Samarasnew public initiatives and protest candidates, the economic irritation of society is becoming fertile soil. Not because they all have ready-made solutions, but because the authorities have a weak point that is visible to every buyer.

Why government measures are not convincing

The government is trying to respond to the problem with subsidies, temporary measures, household baskets, housing programs and market checks. But a significant portion of citizens perceive these measures as insufficient. An assessment is increasingly heard in society: help comes late, covers little and does not change the very structure of high costs.

In March, according to Reutersthe government announced temporary margin caps on fuel and supermarket goods in an attempt to curb speculative markups amid the energy crisis. But such measures alone do not solve the problem of low incomes, expensive housing and the structural dependence of the economy on imported energy and goods.

As long as prices continue to eat into disposable income, any government announcements will face a simple everyday test: has life become easier? If the answer is no, then even the right macroeconomic indicators do not work as a political defense.

Political risk for New Democracy

For New Democracy The main risk is the loss of middle class confidence. It was this layer that for a long time was the basis of the political stability of the government: entrepreneurs, specialists, property owners, families with moderate incomes, people who wanted stability after a decade of crisis. But if stability turns into the expensive stagnation of everyday life, the old contract with the voter begins to crack.

It is not necessary that this will automatically lead to a sharp rise in one opposition force. Greek politics is now fragmented and trust in parties is generally low. But what is dangerous for the government is not so much the defection of voters to competitors as demobilization: some former supporters may simply not come, vote in protest, or look for new political options.

That is why the economy will not just be one of the themes of the campaign, but its nerve. Not the economy as GDP, but the economy as citizen’s pocket. Not the country’s rating, but the apartment bill. Not a budget surplus, but the question of whether it is possible to buy the same products as a year ago without feeling like a participant in a financial experiment.

Editorial comment

Government Kyriakos Mitsotakis faced a classic trap: a country may look better in reports, but worse in the lives of its citizens. And if the authorities continue to speak in the language of ratings and surpluses, when people count the last euros before their salary, the political gap will only grow.

High prices, housing and poor everyday life are not minor social complaints, but the core of future elections. A citizen votes not for the GDP growth chart, but for the feeling that his life has become more sustainable. As long as this feeling is absent, the economy will not be the government’s shield, but its most vulnerable point.

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