Iran offers to export uranium to Russia: the US is unhappy

Iran transferred through intermediaries USA new proposal: truce, phased opening Hormuz and export of uranium to Russia.

Iran passed on USA through mediators, a new proposal to end the conflict, including a truce, a phased opening Strait of Hormuzeconomic concessions and, according to Arab media reports, the possible transfer of part of the enriched uranium to Russianot in USA.

Key Findings

• Reuters reports that Pakistan passed on USA revised Iranian proposal to end the conflict.
• Axios writes that an American official named a new position Iran insufficient and warned of the risk of renewed war.
• According to Arab media, Tehran proposes a long-term truce, a politically acceptable agreement formula and a gradual opening Strait of Hormuz.
• In the nuclear part, according to media reports, Iran I am ready to discuss a long-term “freezing” of the program, but not the complete elimination of the infrastructure.
• A separate point concerns enriched uranium: the option of transferring it to Russiawhich has previously appeared in diplomatic leaks.

Negotiations between USA And Iran have again entered a critical phase. According to Reuters, Pakistanacting as a mediator between the parties, conveyed Washington revised Iranian proposal aimed at ending the conflict and reducing tensions around Strait of Hormuz.

However, in Washington The proposal was received coldly. As he writes Axiosa senior US official called the new Iranian position “insufficient” and stated that if Tehran does not change the approach, the risk of returning to a military scenario will increase sharply.

According to the source AxiosPresident Donald Trump would still like to achieve an agreement diplomatically, but the American administration believes that the Iranian response has hardly changed compared to previous proposals and does not meet the main demands USAprimarily on the nuclear program.

What, according to media reports, Iran offers

Arabic TV channels Al Arabiya And Al Hadath It is reported that the new Iranian position includes several levels of agreements. According to them, Tehran proposes a long-term and multi-stage truce, as well as more “politically formulated” an agreement that would save face and show domestic audiences that the country will not capitulate under pressure.

This point is important: for Iran the agreement cannot look like a simple concession USA And Israel. After the strikes, the blockade, pressure on oil exports and the crisis around Hormuz any formula should be sold domestically as the result of resistance, not defeat. Diplomacy, as always, is concerned not only with reality, but also with packaging reality for television cameras.

According to Reutersthe Iranian side insists on a cessation of hostilities, lifting of the naval and economic blockade, restoration of the ability to export oil and broader security guarantees. Separately, reports speak of the desire Tehran display a question Strait of Hormuz from a direct connection with the nuclear program.

Hormuz: phased opening and guarantees

One of the central points of negotiations is Strait of Hormuzthrough which a significant portion of the world’s oil and gas supplies pass. According to Arab media reports, Iran proposes a gradual and controlled opening of the strait with the participation of guarantor countries, among which are: Pakistan And Oman.

For Washington freedom of navigation through Hormuz remains one of the main requirements. Reuters previously wrote that USA are seeking international support to restore free movement across the strait, as the protracted crisis has already hit oil prices and increased inflationary risks in the global economy.

For Tehran control over Hormuz has become one of the few levers of pressure in a situation where its economy is suffering from blows, sanctions and blockades. Therefore, the Iranian logic is simple: if the West wants an open strait, it must give counter guarantees. Not very subtle, but quite understandable. Geopolitics in general is rarely a lace; more often it is a crowbar on the negotiating table.

Uranium to Russia, but not to the USA

The most sensitive element concerns the nuclear program. According to Arab media reports, Iran is not ready to completely eliminate the nuclear infrastructure, but allows for long-term “freezing” parts of the program. At the same time, about 400 kg enriched uranium, according to these data, can be transferred to Russianot in USA.

This idea didn’t come out of thin air. Back in March Axios wrote that the president Russia Vladimir Putin offered Donald Trump option for exporting Iranian highly enriched uranium to Russia as part of a possible deal to end the war. Then, according to Axios, Trump rejected this offer.

For Iran the Russian option looks politically less humiliating. Transfer uranium USA would actually mean admitting surrender to the main enemy. Transfer to Russia allows us to present it as a technical measure under the control of a friendly power. The difference is not only legal, but also symbolic: in such negotiations, symbols are sometimes worth as much as centrifuges.

For USA And Israel The main question remains the same: will Iran’s uranium stockpile really be taken out of control? Tehran and whether it will be possible to verify that he will not return to the military program. Therefore, the American side, judging by the leaks, does not yet consider the Iranian formula sufficient.

Economic demands and sanctions

According to Arab media, Iran also softens the economic block of requirements: instead of direct compensation for damage Tehran may agree to the lifting or easing of some sanctions, economic concessions and relaxations in oil exports.

Iranian agency Tasnim reported that a possible temporary exception was being considered as part of the negotiations Iran from part of the oil sanctions. Reutersin turn, reports that the parties are discussing options that would reduce economic pressure and at the same time postpone the most difficult nuclear issues to the next stage.

Washington faces an unpleasant choice here. If you give Iran too many concessions, it will look like a concession after escalation. If nothing is given, the negotiations may break down and the military scenario will return. Here it is, the diplomatic comfort of the 21st century: choose between a bad agreement and a good fire.

Why does the US call supply insufficient?

According to American sources Axiosthe new Iranian position does not meet key demands Washington. The United States wants not just a pause, but clear guarantees on the nuclear program, the withdrawal or control of enriched uranium reserves, and an end to threats to shipping through Hormuz and broader security obligations.

The problem is that Iran does not want to start with nuclear surrender. Tehran trying to first secure a cessation of hostilities, economic relief and the opening of space for oil exports, and only then discuss long-term nuclear restrictions. USA And IsraelOn the contrary, they want to first receive nuclear guarantees and only then talk about major concessions.

It is this order of steps that blocks the deal. The parties not only argue about the content of the agreement, they argue about consistency. And in diplomacy, consistency is not a technicality, but a matter of trust, status and who will blink first.

Role of Pakistan and Oman

A special place in the negotiations is occupied by Pakistan. According to Reutersit was through Pakistani intermediaries that the Iranian position was conveyed USA. It does Islamabad an important channel of indirect dialogue between the parties, who formally continue to avoid direct negotiations on the substance of the deal.

Oman also traditionally plays the role of mediator in negotiations between Iran and the West. For Tehran the participation of regional mediators is important: it helps avoid looking like a party that is directly asking for an agreement from the United States. For Washington this is a convenient way to test proposals without publicly investing in each round of negotiations.

The problem, however, is that mediators can convey proposals, but cannot force the parties to trust each other. And trust between USA And Iran now it’s about the same as the taxpayer’s response to a letter with an unknown link.

Risk of returning to war

The main danger is that the negotiating window is narrowing. Axios writes that American officials consider the proposal Iran insufficient and warn that without serious changes, the negotiations may break down. In that case USA and their allies may return to forceful pressure.

For the region, this means the threat of a new round of war, attacks on Iranian infrastructure, attacks on ships, a surge in oil prices and the expansion of the conflict to Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and the Persian Gulf. There are too many forces already involved in the crisis for it to be safely left on autopilot.

Therefore, even an incomplete and controversial proposal Iran remains important. It shows that Tehran is looking for a way out, but is not ready to accept American conditions as an ultimatum. Washingtonin turn, is trying to achieve maximum concessions without appearing to be a party that is itself seeking a truce.

Editorial comment

The Iranian proposal shows that Tehran ready to bargain, but not ready to capitulate. Transfer of uranium to Russianot in USAphased opening Hormuzthe refusal of direct compensation in favor of economic relief – all this is an attempt to find a way out in which Iran will save face, and Washington will be able to declare pressure that has yielded results.

But the main problem remains the same: USA they want guarantees before concessions, Iran wants concessions until final guarantees are made. While the parties argue over the order of steps, the region remains on the verge of a new explosion. And if diplomacy fails again, not only governments will pay, but markets, shipping, energy and ordinary people, to whom the next “grand strategy” will arrive in the form of prices, crises and new wars.

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