Xi and Trump in Beijing: smiles, Taiwan and trade

Xi Jinping And Donald Trump met at Beijing. The two sides talked about trade, Taiwan and stability, but the chances of a big breakthrough remain minimal.

Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing has become one of the most high-profile diplomatic meetings of the year, with the US and China again trying to stabilize a relationship that is simultaneously tied to trade, Taiwan, technology, Iran, the global economy and the personal chemistry of the two leaders. Outside – smiles, compliments and conversations about a great future. Inside is the old struggle between two superpowers, where each side wants peace, but only on its own terms.

According to Reutersnegotiations in Beijing took place against the backdrop of a fragile trade truce between the two countries, wars around Irandebates about technology, artificial intelligence and ongoing tensions around Taiwan. The Chinese side emphasized the need to avoid conflict, the American side emphasized business, reciprocity and practical agreements.

Xi Jinping said there are no winners in trade wars. According to the message CBS Newsthe Chinese leader emphasized that economic ties between China and the United States are mutually beneficial, and he called the results achieved by the trade teams generally balanced and positive.

But Beijing’s main hard line came from Taiwan. Si warned Trumpthat the wrong approach to the Taiwan issue could lead the two countries to clash and even conflict, putting the entire Sino-US relationship in an extremely dangerous situation. The Chinese leader also said that “Taiwan independence” and peace in the Taiwan Strait are as incompatible as fire and water. This was reported Financial Times And The Guardian.

Beijing talks about partnership, but demands recognition of red lines

Chinese rhetoric at the meeting was built around two theses: cooperation is beneficial for everyone, but Beijing is not ready to concede on key issues. Xi Jinping stated that stabilizing US-China relations is important not only for the two economies, but for the whole world. According to him, the success of one side can open up opportunities for the other, and stable bilateral ties are beneficial to the international community.

The Chinese leader also called Beijing And Washington to be partners, not adversaries. In its formulation, both countries must help each other develop and develop a new model of great power coexistence. This is an old Chinese idea: the United States must recognize China as an equal center of power, abandon the logic of containment, and embrace a new architecture of relations.

At the same time Si actually raised a question of historic proportions before the American side: will China and the United States be able to overcome “Thucydides’ trap” – a scenario in which a rising power and the incumbent leader of the system are inevitably moving towards conflict. As noted The Guardianthis topic was voiced in the official Chinese broadcast of the meeting.

The meaning of the signal is clear: China does not want to be seen as the party that is pushing the world towards war. Instead, Beijing is trying to portray itself as a force of stability and the United States as a power that must decide whether it is willing to accept China’s rise without trying to stop it. Beautiful, of course. Especially if you don’t remember that in diplomacy the word “stability” often means: “recognize our interests, and everyone will feel calmer.”

Trump responds with compliments and business

Donald Trump chose his usual line – personal compliments, promises of a big deal and an emphasis on direct contact with the leader of China. He called Xi Jinping great leader and stated that he was honored to be with him and to be his friend. According to The NationalTrump said relations between the US and China could be better than ever.

The American president also said that the United States will do business with China on a reciprocal basis. According to him, direct contact with the President of the People’s Republic of China has always allowed the two countries to overcome difficulties. After negotiations Trump described the meeting as excellent.

But behind this demonstrative warmth there remains a pragmatic calculation. For Trump China is not only a strategic rival, but also a huge market, a source of transactions, investments and a possible participant in stabilizing global crises. Against a backdrop of economic problems and international turbulence, he needs results that can be shown to the American voter: trade, procurement, investment, access for American companies, energy and large contracts.

That is why the American line looks dual: publicly – friendship and business, strategically – competition, technology control, Taiwan, Iran and mistrust. Translated from diplomatic to human: “we want to trade with you, but we don’t want you to become stronger than us.” Not the newest idea in the history of empires, but consistently popular.

Rubio: US doesn’t want to contain China, but not at its own expense

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio formulated the American position more dryly and harshly. He stated that Washington is not trying to restrain the development of China, but the growth of the PRC should not come at the expense of the fall of the United States. According to Economic TimesRubio emphasized that China is both a major geopolitical challenge and a critical relationship that the United States must manage wisely.

According to Rubiowe are talking about a large and powerful country that will continue to develop and strengthen. At the same time, the interests of the United States and China will inevitably diverge in a number of areas. To avoid wars and maintain peace and stability, Washington and Beijing will have to build and maintain a balance.

Rubio also noted that there are issues of fundamental importance for the United States that the American side is obliged to raise and will continue to raise. But there are also areas where cooperation is possible, and these opportunities should not be missed.

This formula perhaps most accurately reflects the real state of affairs. The United States can no longer simply dictate rules to China. China can no longer pretend that its rise is not alarming to Washington. Both sides understand that the conflict will be a disaster, but neither is ready to give up its strategic goals. The result is a diplomacy of constant braking before the cliff: everyone knows where the edge is, but everyone still tries to get closer.

What can they really solve?

The main question after the Beijing meeting is whether the parties will be able to come to a real agreement or whether everything will be limited to secondary issues. Our conclusion: global deal unlikely. The US and China could agree on separate measures on trade, procurement, investment, energy, artificial intelligence, rare earth metals or even coordination around international crises. But it will be extremely difficult for them to agree on a new world architecture.

The reason is simple: the contradictions between the two countries are not technical, but systemic in nature. The US wants to maintain its leadership. China wants recognition of its status as the second, and in some places, the first power in key regions and industries. For Beijing, Taiwan is a matter of sovereignty and historical mission; for Washington, it is an element of strategic balance in Asia and a test of the trust of its allies. Technology for China is the path to independence, for the United States it is a zone where the loss of advantage cannot be allowed.

Therefore, the most likely outcome is partial détente without much reconciliation. There will be positive statements, individual economic agreements, possibly new communication channels and crisis prevention mechanisms. But the fundamental conflict will not go away. It will just be neatly packaged again in words about partnership, stability and mutual benefit. Diplomacy generally knows how to wrap steel in velvet.

Taiwan remains the main nerve

The most dangerous point is Taiwan. The Chinese side has made it clear that it considers this issue to be the core of relations with the United States. If Washington increases its support for Taipei and Beijing increases pressure, the space for compromise will narrow.

It is significant that the American official description of the negotiations, according to media reports, paid less attention to Taiwan than the Chinese side. For Beijing, this was a central political signal. For Washington, this is a topic that it is better not to turn into a public conflict during the visit. The difference in approaches in itself says a lot about where the parties see the main threat.

China is trying to get the US to at least actually recognize its red line. The United States, in turn, does not want to look like a party that is ready to trade Taiwan for trade concessions, assistance on Iran or economic deals. Especially given the anxiety of the allies in Asia.

Editorial comment

Beijing meeting Xi Jinping And Donald Trump looks important, but not a turning point. Yes, the parties clearly want to avoid a collapse in relations. Yes, both economies are too connected to allow a complete break. Yes, Washington and Beijing have topics where it is beneficial for them to negotiate. But all this does not negate the main thing: the United States and China are in a long-term strategic rivalry, which cannot be closed with one meeting, even if there were many compliments at it.

Si spoke the language of historical responsibility, stability and a new model of relations between the great powers. Trump responded in the language of personal friendship, business and transactions. Rubio added the real essence of the American approach: China will grow, but the United States will not allow this growth to happen at its own expense. It is in this triple formula that the whole problem is hidden.

Our forecast is restrained: the parties will resolve or postpone secondary issues, but will not agree globally. Trade concessions, new purchases, agreements on communication channels, statements about reducing tensions, and even temporary stabilization are possible. But on Taiwan, technology, the military balance and China’s role in the world system, the compromise will be minimal.

Beijing wants Washington to recognize the new reality. Washington wants China to grow within the old system, where the US still writes the main rules. These two positions can be temporarily combined in a communique, but are difficult to combine in real politics.

Therefore, the main result of the visit is not a breakthrough, but a respite. The two superpowers are again convinced that the conflict will cost them too much, but they are not ready to concede on the main thing. The world temporarily received less risk, markets received a little calm, diplomats received another reason to talk about stability. And the American-Chinese struggle itself simply moved into the next series. Unfortunately, this series does not have end credits.

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