Moscow’s “strange strategy”: how the war in Ukraine reached a positional dead end

Armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine The battle has been going on for almost four years, but neither side has yet achieved a decisive advantage.

Despite significant losses and active hostilities, the front line remains generally stable.

According to various estimates, the total human losses on both sides may be close to 1.5 million people. At the same time Moscow retains the initiative on most sections of an extended front about 1,200 kilometersbut does not demonstrate a desire for a large-scale offensive.

A recent Ukrainian counterattack involving approximately 25,000 military personnelformed into several brigades and regiments, again raised the question of the nature of the Russian strategy. The fighting took place over a wide area from Kharkov region to Zaporozhye.

Since the summer of 2023, Russian troops have controlled the pace of operations, but this has not led to a breakthrough in the defense. Major cities including Kyiv And Kharkovwere not subject to systemic attack.

During this time, Russia has achieved success in a number of areas. The following settlements were occupied: Mariupol, Bakhmut, Avdeevka, Marinka, Ugledar and others. However, these victories were tactical in nature and did not provide a strategic turning point.

Mass integration has become a serious factor unmanned aerial vehicles into combat. Since the end of 2023, drones have formed the so-called “kill zone” up to 20 kilometers wide, which significantly limits troop maneuvers.

Any unit entering this zone is at high risk of destruction. According to military analysts, the effectiveness of drones has largely surpassed traditional artillery.

The Russian army, according to available data, has about 90,000 drone operators. This allowed the initiative to be maintained, but did not provide the opportunity for a large-scale offensive.

At the same time, the number of parties remains comparable. Russia has approximately 600,000 military personnel in the theater of military operations, Ukraine – approx. 900,000. According to classical military doctrines, a successful breakthrough requires multiple superiority of the attacking side.

Under these conditions, the question of Moscow’s strategic goals remains open. Experts note the limited use of aviation, the absence of attacks on the highest political and military leadership of Ukraine, as well as restraint in the use of the latest missile systems.

Additional questions are raised by the uninterrupted supply of weapons to Ukraine from countries NATO. Despite this, no serious attempts have yet been made to disrupt logistics.

Analysts agree that Russia has greater demographic potential, but the prolonged nature of the conflict increases its cost, both economically and socially.

Thus, the current model of warfare creates a positional deadlock in which neither side is ready for a decisive breakthrough without significant political and military risks.

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