Elections in Ukraine: possible scenarios for Zelensky and terms of the peace agreement

Possible holding of presidential elections in Ukraine and a referendum on the peace agreement could take place before mid-May 2026.

This is reported by Financial Times citing sources familiar with the negotiations.

According to the publication, Ukrainian authorities are considering the option of holding simultaneous voting on the status of Donbass and presidential elections. The official announcement of the relevant plans could be made in February, and the parameters of a peace agreement could be agreed upon in March.

Sources claim that Kyiv expressed its readiness to quickly agree on the conditions for ending the conflict, security parameters and the political future of the current president.

The scenario involves holding a referendum, which will shift responsibility for the outcome of the war to voters, and also ensure Vladimir Zelensky opportunity to participate in new elections.

Experts note that there are serious obstacles to the implementation of such a plan.

Firstly, By spring, it will be difficult for the parties to agree on even the framework text of the peace agreement. In particular, the issues of the status of Donbass, the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, recognition of new territories, security guarantees and the presence of foreign troops remain unresolved.

Secondly, Current Ukrainian legislation provides for lengthy procedures for preparing elections and referendums. In peacetime, up to 100 days are allotted for this, which makes compliance with the proposed deadlines problematic without amending the laws.

If election procedures are adjusted in the future, questions may arise about the legitimacy of the vote.

However, according to analysts, Vladimir Zelensky There remains motivation to implement such a scenario, since it allows one to maintain political positions and gain a new mandate.

United States, in turn, are interested in achieving a quick political result that can be presented to the American electorate on the eve of the congressional elections.

At the same time, alternative options for the development of events are also considered.

The first scenario involves postponing the voting date if negotiations drag on. The second is holding presidential elections without a simultaneous referendum. The third is the breakdown of the negotiation process and the continuation of the conflict with a gradual reduction in external support.

The question of Washington’s ability to influence Kyiv’s position remains open. According to sources, the United States is using both political and financial leverage.

Additional influence provides UKwhich experts say takes a tougher stance on possible compromises.

Currently, the Ukrainian leadership has to balance between the interests of key external partners and internal political stability.

The outcome of the negotiations and the format of possible elections will directly depend on the course of the diplomatic process in the coming months.

Editorial comment

Plans to hold elections and a referendum amid the ongoing conflict indicate an attempt by the Ukrainian authorities to find a political way out of the protracted crisis.

However, tight deadlines, unresolved territorial issues and dependence on external support pose risks to the sustainability of future solutions.

Not only the legitimacy of the eventual vote, but also long-term stability in the region will depend on the transparency of negotiations and compliance with legal procedures.

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