When anxiety is stronger than rain: why did Athens have a climate lockdown?

Dramatic predictions about the supposedly impending “Noah’s flood» led to the actual disorganization of the entire infrastructure capitals of Greece.

Hundreds of thousands of parents were forced tostay home after missing a day of workbecauseClosing of schools and kindergartensdeprived them of the opportunity to leave minor children under supervision.

As the development of events showed, loud warning of extreme weather events it turned out significantly exaggeratedsince it was precisely this that became the basis for introduction of emergency measures, primarily the mass closure of educational institutions.

Since noon the water level has been Kifisos increased due to rainfall that hit the region. At the moment, the situation is not out of the norm and does not cause immediate concern, but there are concerns that problems may arise with prolonged rainfall and a sharp increase in water volume. A similar picture is observed in Ilissoswhere the water level has already begun to rise, causing alarm among residents of the surrounding areas.

Bad weather does continue in most parts of the country and is accompanied by prolonged rain, snowfall in mountainous areas and stormy windswhich have already disrupted maritime communications. However, as the meteorologist emphasizes Giorgos Tsatrafilias“Although Attika and received a large volume of water, but no one can know in advance what will happen in the end“

According to the updated emergency bulletin EMΥ (National Weather Service)rain in Attica should continue until the early evening. In the previous hours, residents received messages en masse 112 with calls to limit movement and avoid leaving home.

At the same time, as Tsatrafilias notes, three major prognostic centers spoke about 35–80 tons of water per hectarethat is, the amount of precipitation equivalent 30–60 days of rainfalling within a few hours. The reality turned out to be different.

As a result, most areas passed moderate rainswhich could not cause serious problems, except in areas with zero or weak stormwater drainage infrastructure. Nevertheless, the capital is actually went into reduced operation mode in the middle of the work week.

Even in municipalities where schools were not officially closed, pparents preferred to leave their children at home, fearing “something very bad.” It’s hard to blame them: this is exactly how the situation was described to them government agenciesbacking up alarming scenarios with official emergency notifications.

The result was revealing: with temperatures around 13 °C and no extreme precipitation, life in the capital region was virtually paralyzed. The forecasting model, which increasingly – regardless of the season – predicts the “end of the world”, requires not cosmetic, but systemic review.

Editorial comment

In this story it is convenient to pretend that blame the weather. Showers, cyclones, models, uncertainty. Convenient – and absolutely false. The weather does not close schools, send out alarming messages, or paralyze the life of an entire region.

People create panic. In the beginning – those who turn a probabilistic forecast into an image “Noah’s Flood” without bothering to explain the risks, scope and alternative scenarios. But they are not the ones who take the decisive step.

Those who make management decisions bear the decisive responsibility. They were the ones who pressed the “close schools” button, knowing full well what this meant for hundreds of thousands of families: lost workdays, disrupted shifts, parents locked at home without any real threat.

This step had not only social, but also direct economic consequences. Let’s try to evaluate them extremely carefully.

Minimal scenario. Assuming that due to school closures only about 150–200 thousand parents Attica actually lost one day of work, and the average daily productivity or income is only 70–80 eurosdirect losses to the region’s economy amount to 10–16 million euros in one day. This does not take into account the multiplicative effect.

Maximum, but still realistic scenario. If the number of affected parents approaches 300–350 thousandand the average economic contribution of a working day is 100–120 euros (which for the capital region does not look like an overstatement at all), the total losses reach 30–40 million euros in just a few hours of managerial paralysis.

To these figures are added hidden lossesthat are usually not included in reports: canceled shifts in the service sector, losses of the self-employed, delivery delays, disruptions in small businesses, decreased turnover in trade and transport. They cannot be accurately counted, but they are significantly increase the final cost of the solution.

And all this – for the sake of a scenario that did not materialize. With temperatures around 13 °C and moderate precipitation, life in the capital region was virtually stopped. Not because of the elements, but because of the managerial logic “it’s better to play it safe,” where the cost of a mistake is transferred to society in advance.

It was not an act of caring, but an act administrative self-insurance. If the worst had happened, strict measures could have been reported. When nothing happened, there was no analysis, no apology, no responsibility.

It was not the rain that paralyzed Attica.
She was paralyzed by a decision whose cost is measured not in millimeters of precipitation, but tens of millions of euros and lost trust.

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