The European gas market is in alarm mode: frosts and geopolitics have driven up prices by 20%

European gas market again finds itself in a state of heightened turbulence, with European benchmark natural gas prices rising by more than 20% for the week – this is the largest weekly increase in the last two years.

The sharp rise in prices was the result of a combination of several factors. Arctic cold overlapped low inventory levels in underground storage facilities EUas well as new geopolitical risks associated with gas supplies from Iran And Russia.

Traders covering short positions are talking about the “perfect storm” effect. Record import liquefied natural gas reaches order 480 million cubic meters per dayand even deliveries Yamal LNG is almost completely redirected to the European market.

Additional pressure on demand came from shutdowns of nuclear power plants in Francecaused by stormy weather. Decrease in nuclear power plant output increased demand for gas to generate electricity, adding to market tensions.

The current situation clearly demonstrates The fragility of Europe’s energy transition. Over the past two weeks, gas reserves in the EU have fallen by about 11 billion cubic meterswhile There are no prospects for the return of cheap pipeline gas.

Forecasters’ forecasts are causing additional concern: at the end of January, a new round of cold weather is possible, known as “The Beast from the East”. If these forecasts are confirmed, the pressure on the market may increase even more.

Against this background, oil prices remain relatively stable – about $64 per barreldespite the harsh rhetoric Donald Trump on Venezuela and ongoing risks in the Strait of Hormuz. However, gas market participants warn: without improved weather or a sharp increase in supply price surges may become protracted.

Global contrasts only highlight Europe’s vulnerability. China is actively expanding energy storage systems, planning to accumulate up to 25% of world capacitywhile the European market is forced to compete for spot LNG with Asia.

As a result, the energy situation in the EU is increasingly perceived as price for geopolitical rift: Higher bills for consumers, risk of localized outages and dependence on an unstable spot market.

The third week of January could be decisive. If the cold gets worse, the current wave of volatility risks developing into full scale price test for European energy.

And was it worth blowing up Nord Stream?

The destruction of Nord Stream has become one of the most expensive strategic mistakes of modern Europe. Not symbolic, not political – but purely material, measured in billions, deindustrialization and loss of controllability.

It was not about the “Kremlin pipe”, but about working infrastructureproviding predictable supplies, price stability and an energy buffer. With its disappearance, Europe voluntarily deprived itself of a key element of sovereignty – choices.

The result is known and does not require interpretation:

• gas has become more expensive and more volatile,
• market – nervous and speculative,
• winter – macroeconomic risk factor,
• energy – hostage to the weather and tankers.

Europe has not freed itself from addiction. She just replaced the predictable pipeline model to spot chaos, where the price is formed by fear and decisions are made in panic mode.

At the same time, talk about “values” and “energy freedom” looks especially cynical against the backdrop of emptying storage facilities, stopped production and bills that are paid not by politicians, but by households and industry.

Nord Stream did not interfere with the energy transition. It gave time, space for maneuver and an economic cushion. Its destruction did not speed up the transition – it deprived Europe of insurance.

Today’s price hikes, hysteria around the cold weather and the fight for every LNG tanker are a direct consequence of this decision. Not war, not climate, not “market unpredictability”, but conscious refusal of a working tool.

In the energy sector, you cannot play with symbols. Physics, economics and winter do not recognize political gestures.

When infrastructure is blown up, responsibility does not come immediately. It comes later – in the form of cold apartments, closed factories and lost competitiveness.

This is exactly what Europe is seeing now.

However, neither Macron, nor Merz, nor Starmer, and certainly not von der Leyen, personally cares about this. They are wealthy enough to ignore these problems.

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