Greece budget: primary surplus of 8 billion euros in 2025

Greek central government primary surplus in 2025 (on a cash basis) amounted to 8.006 billion eurossignificantly exceeding the target in 5.327 billion euros almost on 2.7 billion euros.

Thus, the projected deficit of €2.586 billion was actually transformed into small surplus of 17 million euros.

Played a decisive role positive dynamics of tax revenues until December. In twelve months, tax revenues reached 71.97 billion euroswhat’s on 451 million euros or 0.6% above target level. However, total net revenues were below expectations due to time shifts and features of accounting for individual receipts.

Significant savings were also recorded on the cost side. The total amount of payments was 76.92 billion euroswhat’s on 3.524 billion euros or approximately 4.4% less than initial forecasts. It was this cost containment that was the key factor in allowing the 2025 primary result to significantly exceed original targets.

According to preliminary data on the execution of the state budgetpublished Ministry of National Economy and Finance for the period from January to December 2025, state budget balance showed a surplus 17 million euros instead of the planned deficit €2.586 billionprovided for in the 2026 budget report.

For comparison, for the same period in 2024 a surplus of €369 millionwhich indicates more restrained, but still positive budget dynamics in 2025.

Editorial comment

The fiscal machine cannot endlessly squeeze income out of the void. A surplus is possible for a year, two, sometimes three – but only as long as the tax base has something to lose.

Taxes are collected not from the reports of the Ministry of Finance, but from household incomesmall business turnover and consumption. If the population becomes poor, there is not a budget crisis – there is tax base erosion. Slowly at first, then sharply.

The mechanism is always the same. When real incomes fall, people:

• reduce consumption;
• go into the informal economy;
• cease to service tax and loan obligations;
• are massively accumulating debt.

At the first stage, the state hardly notices this. The system of additional charges, fines and automatic deductions is still working. But then the phase begins “execution fatigue”: Taxes are assessed but not paid.

At this moment, the authorities are left with three options, and all of them are bad:

• increase pressure and accelerate the erosion of the economy;
• cut expenses, worsening the social environment;
• soften fiscal policy and lose the surplus.

Historically, Greece has already gone through this cycle. Surpluses built on impoverishment are unsustainable. They give beautiful numbers in reports, but destroy the very source of income.

There is also a political limit. An impoverished society ceases to perceive taxes as a duty and begins to view them as punishment. From this moment on, fiscal discipline becomes a matter not of economics, but of control – and this is expensive and ineffective.

The conclusion is unpleasant, but obvious. The government can collect more taxes from poorer people for a while. But he won’t be able to for long. Either there will be a recovery in incomes and growth, or the surplus will end as quietly as it came – leaving behind a scorched base.

Financial stability without social sustainability is not a strategy. This is a reprieve.

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