What’s happening in Iran: crackdown, negotiations and the threat of an external attack

Iranian authorities They say that the situation with mass protests in the country has been brought under control. According to the Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi, rebellious actions “fully controlled”and the main sources of instability have been suppressed.

A day earlier, January 11Iranian security forces announced the detention of key participants in the protests, without disclosing their numbers or names. In parallel, a number of cities held mass pro-government demonstrations. In Tehran, the president of the country took part in one of these actions. Masoud Pezeshkian.

The day before, the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei stated that the authorities do not intend to make concessions to the “terrorists” and “destroyers” who, according to Tehran, are directed and coordinated Israel and USA.

The formal reason for the start of the protests was sharp decline in the national currency and sanctioned by the authorities increase in fuel prices. However, very quickly social discontent acquired a political and radical character. The main slogan of the protesters was change of power and overthrow of the ayatollah regime.

The protest movement was openly supported Israel and USAas well as the son of the Shah overthrown in 1979 living in the United States – Reza Pahlavi.

Already last week, according to media reports, some protesters developed firearmswhich led to direct military clashes with security forces. They were especially fierce in regions with predominantly Kurdish populationwhere external ties are traditionally strong, including contacts with Israel.

At the end of last week, in addition to the police, units were involved in suppressing the unrest Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). As even Western media admit, the protests were largely suppressed, although they were not completely eliminated.

The price of suppression was high. According to official data from Tehran, about 500 people diedof which about 100 are law enforcement officers. At the same time, Iranian opposition resources and Israeli media claim that the death toll is in the thousands. Footage of bodies in black bags is being published, among which relatives are looking for missing loved ones.

In parallel, it is unfolding in the West political campaign calling for a military strike on Iran – as a form of support for protesters. Otherwise, it is argued, the Iranian authorities will be able to completely suppress the riot in the coming days.

These calls were joined by Vladimir Zelenskydeclaring that “the world must not miss the moment when change is possible” and calling on world leaders to intervene.

American media report that the option of a military strike on Iran being worked on at the White Househowever the final decision Donald Trump I haven’t accepted it yet. Formally, Washington does not rule out a military scenario, but disagreements remain within the administration. One of the opponents of direct intervention, according to press reports, is the Vice President James Vance.

At the same time, attempts at diplomatic maneuver are being recorded. Trump’s special envoy enters into negotiations with Iranian authorities Steve Witkoff. According to the head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, some proposals were received from the American side, the contents of which were not disclosed.

Previously, the United States demanded that Iran completely abandon its nuclear program. After the refusal followed limited military strike. It is unknown what ultimatum is being put forward now. Publicly, Washington demands an end to the violent suppression of protests.

However, given the fact that the protests took armed character and are aimed at overthrow of powerit is unlikely that Tehran will abandon military measures until the rebellion is completely suppressed. For the Iranian leadership this is a question political and physical survival.

It is quite possible that Tehran’s readiness to negotiate with the United States is tactical nature – in order to gain time and avoid an American strike until the situation inside the country is finally stabilized.

Finally, a key role is played by geopolitical factor. Trump’s latest moves, including the introduction 25 percent tariffs against Iran’s trading partners, point to a broader goal – weakening of Chinawhich purchases significant volumes of Iranian oil, and previously oil from Venezuela.

Thus, pressure on Iran becomes part of strategies against Beijing. This, as Western media are already warning, could lead to a new round of trade war and Chinese retaliatory measures, including possible restrictions on the supply of rare earth metals to the United States.

One of the consequences may be further rapprochement between China and Russiawhich is capable of compensating Beijing for the shortage of raw materials, including via land routes inaccessible to the American fleet.

This, in turn, could influence Trump’s position on the war in Ukraine, both in the direction of increasing pressure on Russia and in the direction of pressure on Kyiv to force it to accept Moscow’s key demands for the sake of a major geopolitical deal.

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