Political earthquake in Greece: Samaras’ party can decide the fate of ND

The political system that has governed Greece since Metapolitefsi*begins to crack.

Almost all of the latter opinion polls record a radical redistribution of electoral forces, the key element of which is the emergence of a political platform associated with Maria Karistianuor, more precisely, inspired by the ideas of the so-called “Tempi’s Mothers”.

A scenario is emerging in which, if elections were held this coming Sunday, New Democracy (ND) could retain first place, but would be far from a self-sufficient majority, while the role of the official opposition would pass to the so-called “Tempi’s parties”.

It is important to emphasize the conventionality of this scenario: real elections are expected in March 2027and the political time in Greece became extremely “dense” and eventful.

Today the ND fluctuates in the range 20–24% voting intentions, whereas the platform M. Karistianu reaches 14–18%. The remaining parties – both existing and potential – are located in much narrower electoral niches.

This is where a key but often overlooked variable comes in: Antonis Samaras. If he decides to independently participate in the elections, his potential result is unlikely to exceed 5%however, it is precisely these percentages that can be fatal for ND.

Unlike other new or small political formations, Samaras’ party is capable of take away “clean” votes directly at the core of the ND electorate. In fact, its presence can determine not only the question of self-sufficiency, but even will ND remain the first party.

Even relatively modest ones 4–6%received by Samaras may cost ND at least ten parliamentary mandateswhich radically changes the balance of power.

At the same time “Tempi’s party”provided there are no serious political mistakes – including even minimal contacts with toxic figures like Nikos Karahalios – theoretically capable of claiming even first place. We are talking exclusively about current data.

However, the Tempi electorate does not directly attack the remaining ND core, unlike Samaras’ possible project. It deals the main damage systemic opposition parties – as existing (PASOK, Greek solution), and potential (platform Alexis Tsipras).

It is expected that the left spectrum, led by A. Tsipras may stabilize in the area 10–12%while PASOK will be slightly lower. Greek solution And Freedom Course will clearly pay a price for the possible “explosive” entry of the Tempi party into parliament.

Even CNG will be under pressure, while Measure25 balancing about 1.5%. The remaining small forces risk being absorbed by Tsipras’ new platform.

Aphrodite Latino and party “Voice of Reason” demonstrate relative stability at a level of about 4%drawing on a young, right-wing conservative audience.

The party deserves special attention NIKIwhich, despite skepticism, starts at approximately 2%. The figure of the lawyer remains intriguing Maria Graziaideologically close to Karistian, but did not formally leave NIKI.

Finally, the possibility of the emergence of hard nationalist right project with potential 5–7%which will further complicate the political mathematics.

In any scenario, one thing is clear: if elections were held now, ND would not gain self-sufficiency and would be far from the threshold 36%. The only way is a coalition with PASOK, Greek decision or both, according to the government model Papadimosa (2011–2012).

However, with the participation of Samaras’s party, a scenario in which “Tempi’s party” will be released for the first time on first placemarking the virtual end of the Metapolitefsi era.

Editorial comment

Metapolitefsi is over. Not tomorrow, not “if”, not “in the future” – it’s already over. It’s just that the Greek political class continues to pretend that this did not happen, like the residents of a house whose foundation has collapsed, but the curtains are still hanging.

The system built after 1974 was based not on the “values ​​of democracy,” as is commonly said, but on sustainable elite compromise: alternation of power, clientelism, expansion of the state, European money and public agreement to remain silent in exchange for relative prosperity. This contract was terminated long ago – unilaterally by society.

ND, PASOK and all their derivatives no longer represent the majority. They rule by inertia, relying on fear, fatigue and lack of alternatives, but not on trust. That is why any non-systemic impulse – from the “Tempi party” to personal platforms – instantly gains weight. This is not fashion. This is a symptom of decay.

Greece is not entering a “new political cycle”, but post-metapolitan turbulence zoneWhere:

• the old parties still exist,
• but they no longer form the agenda;
• the institutes are still working,
• but they are not believed;
• elections are still being held
• but do not solve the legitimacy crisis.

The most dangerous myth of today is that everything can be “fixed.” It is forbidden. Metapolitefsi cannot be reformed because it has been exhausted historically. Attempts to preserve it are not stabilization, but a postponement of a more severe collapse.

If ND becomes the second or even third party player, it will not be a “defeat of the government.” It will be official obituary of the entire erain which the government considered itself eternal, and society – controlled.

Metapolitefsi died not because of enemies, but because of complacency.
And the question is no longer is it over?but in that who will replace her and with what – and at what cost?.

*Metapolitefsi is the period of Greece’s transition from military dictatorship to democracy, which began in 1974.

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