Greece faces a “black” 2026 as €30 billion worth of loans expire

Greece will face a sharp rise in debt payments in 2026since for this period it is planned to repay government loans in the amount of about 30 billion euroswhereas a year earlier payments amounted to 14 billion euros.

In other words, debt service obligations more than doubleand the government will be forced to use the so-called “airbag”. It’s automatic increases the country’s vulnerability – especially in the case of a new one global economic or financial crisis wavethe probability of which is not at all theoretical.

Even the election Kyryakos Pierrakakis for the post of head Eurogroup in this logic it looks not only like a “diplomatic success”. In Brussels, he is seen as a convenient figure for promoting extremely sensitive decisions, including on confiscation of frozen Russian assets. His Belgian rival famously refused to expose his country to legal risks.

Second, no less important “advantage” for creditors – possible early repayment of interstate European loans (GLF) due to new, more expensive borrowing. This is obviously unprofitable for Greece: the additional interest burden will exceed 420 million eurosand the problem will simply be passed on to the next generations.

It is no coincidence that the idea is being actively discussed on the sidelines complete closure of the first Memorandum until 2030 – at any cost and not in the interests of the country.

Against this background, almost the new Medium-term budget planning for 2026–2029 is not discussedalready presented by the government in EU. Its parameters actually become “tombstone” for the Greek economy. Compared to this, the three previous Memorandums look like “walk through the playground”.

Those who have seen the document say shocking spending cutswhich clearly proves: all the “economic dynamics” of past years rested almost exclusively on Recovery Fund.

For the first time in the entire post-memorandum period expenses of almost all ministries in 2025–2029 will decline sharply. We’re talking about digital reform, agriculture, ecology, education, healthcare, tourism, culture and sports, investment, infrastructure, foreign policy and defense.

The economy is entering strangulation mode: –30% of government spending (–4.94 billion euros) in 2025–2028, –5% of civil servants’ salaries (–753 million euros), tax increase by 15% (+10.7 billion euros) and additional VAT increase by 13.9% (+3.8 billion euros) – despite the fact that the rate is already 24%.

At the same time, investment growth slows to 0.9% and 0.8% in 2028–2029, and primary surplus targets are tightened again: 2.8% of GDP in 2026 And 2.7% of GDP in 2027–2029

The main problem with the end of the Recovery Fund in that it will immediately become obvious: without external money, the country would not live in a growth mode, but in conditions protracted and deep recession.

The illusion of development ends—and very quickly.

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