Expert Mashovets: the situation near Gulyai-Polye is more dangerous than near Pokrovsk

Ukrainian military analyst Konstantin Mashovets assesses the situation Gulyai-Polye direction How more threateningthan under Pokrovsky.

According to him, Russian troops have developed a large-scale offensive, achieved high rates of advancement and are creating conditions for possible coverage of the entire defense area Armed Forces of Ukraine with the risk of going to the rear Orekhovskaya grouping.

The expert recalls that over the past month, Russian units managed to cross the river Yanchur on a wide area, entrenched in the area Uspenovka and advanced to a depth of 17 km towards the eastern and north-eastern outskirts Gulyai-Polya. The width of the breakthrough area reaches approximately 16 kmwhich significantly exceeds the dynamics in other directions of the front.

At the same time, Russian forces are advancing along Yanchur towards Yegorovka And Danilovkawhere fighting continues for access to the road to Pokrovskoye. Mashovets considers the breakthrough in the Danilovka area to be one of the key ones: if successful, the enemy will be able to cut the path between Pokrovsky And Gulyai-Polye. Already, the analyst notes, the use of this road in certain sections is virtually impossible.

To the north, where Russian units are trying to reach the river Wolfthey have reached Orestopol And Novoselovkipartially gaining a foothold in these positions. Ukrainian troops hold Sosnovka And Alexandrogradwhich temporarily hinders progress. At the same time, Russian assault groups continue to bypass these defense nodes, moving towards Novoaleksandrovka And Alekseevkawhich creates a threat of a kind of “isolation” of the entire Gulyai-Polye sector.

According to the expert, Russian forces are simultaneously trying to advance to the confluence of the rivers Wolf And Gaichurto go to Andreevka. Simultaneous pressure from two flanks creates real preconditions for covering the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. He estimates the likelihood of such a scenario to be “about 50/50.”

Separately, Mashovets highlights the pace of the offensive, which reaches about 3 km per day. At the front, the width is more than 40 km Russian troops are simultaneously attacking in several directions, which creates pressure along the entire line of defense. In case of successful coverage, he emphasizes, the enemy will be able to develop an offensive on Novonikolaevka and create a threat Orekhovsky area, which will lead to the actual “collapse” of the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the southeast Zaporozhye.

Despite some successful counterattacks, in particular under Ivanovkawhere Ukrainian forces pushed back Russian units beyond Volchya, Mashovets’ overall assessment remains unfavorable. Russian troops are actively using reserves and maintaining a high density of assault infantry, and the nature of the advance indicates an attempt not to limit themselves to local tactical successes, but to achieve a full-fledged operational breakthrough.

The expert warns that without priority attention to this section of the front, the consequences for Ukraine could be much more seriousthan possible loss Pokrovsk.

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