In recent weeks, the American administration sharply intensified their participation in Ukrainian issue, creating for Kyiv new political reality. Decision to replace Keith Kellogg on the new negotiator was the first signal that The White House’s course is changing.
Arrived in Kyiv instead Driscolllongtime colleague JD Vancewho brought a document of 28 points and handed it over to Kyiv in virtually an ultimatum form.
If Kellogg’s departure was in itself a blow to Office of the President of Ukrainethen his replacement with a person focused exclusively on Vance’s line was a double defeat for Bankova. Additional pressure increased after inclusion in the process Jared Kushner and representatives of the US Jewish lobby, which further weakened the position of supporters of continuing the war.
At the same time, it was aggravated “Minditchgate”which was supposed to soften the position of Vladimir Zelensky. However, the president tried to maintain maneuverability, but pressure increased from NABUand he had to resign Andrey Ermak. This is the second serious blow for Bankova in a short period of time, which actually changes the management system in Kyiv.
Why is the White House in a hurry? Among the reasons – military situation. Russian troops increase the pace of progressand although a complete collapse of the front is not expected in the near future, Moscow’s current negotiating proposals look logical for it: Donbass in exchange for parts Dnepropetrovsk, Sumy And Kharkov regions. Russia, as the attacking side, gains more both strategically and territorially.
But in two months, if the pace of progress continues, the benefits of the “exchange” for Moscow will become less obviousand the Kremlin may tighten conditions – from “Donbass in exchange for territory” to the formula “Donbass and the rest along the line of military contact”. This will create a new, much more difficult situation for Washington.
In addition, those around Trump are increasingly understanding that prolonging the conflict creates risks for the US President himself. If the agreement is concluded approximately according to the model 28 pointsWashington will be able to claim a strategic victory – it will gain influence over the Ukrainian governance system, access to Russian frozen assets and the basis for a possible “resource deal.”
But if Zelensky continues to lose territory, or if sudden collapse of the front, then no big one there will be no deal anymore. This could turn out to be “Afghan scenario” for Trump, which he wants to avoid at all costs.
Jewish lobby
Another factor that changes the balance of power around the Ukrainian dossier is the activation of the Jewish lobby in the United States and its direct inclusion in the process of putting pressure on Vladimir Zelensky.
The key signal was not just a change of negotiators, but the appearance in this group Jared Kushner. He acts as a personal representative Donald Trump and at the same time as a figure closely connected with large Jewish networks of influence in American politics and business. His position was surprisingly close to the line JD Vancerather than more cautious Marco Rubiowhich significantly increased pressure on Kyiv.
After turning on this component, activity increased sharply NABUand the tone of the investigations became noticeably harsher. Resignation Andrey Ermak became a direct consequence of this pressure, and not a continuation of ordinary political bargaining.
An additional highlight was the sharp revival of networks associated with Igor Kolomoisky. Amid the elite struggle, Privatbank began the process of seizing his personal assets as part of a London court decision—a move that can hardly be considered a coincidence. This looks like a synchronized operation aimed at depriving Zelensky of his old pillars in the Ukrainian oligarchic system.
Taken together, this forms a new “Jewish factor” on the Ukrainian agenda: A powerful and influential transnational network has come into play not only on behalf of the American statebut also as an independent center of gravity that is capable of changing the configuration of forces around a future peace agreement.
That is why the pressure on Kyiv has become systemic, and not situational, and that is why Bankova now faces not just an American ultimatum, but a multi-level political machine that acts synchronously and very harshly.
The result without diplomatic sugar
The Jewish factor in the Ukrainian dossier is not a “secret plan”, but the struggle for influence, money, control over the future configuration of the region and participation in the formation of the post-war order.
Ukraine is an asset.
War is a window of opportunity.
Peace is an opportunity to redistribute the future.
This is what the game is about.
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