Former Advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine Alexey Arestovich stated that the current negotiations between representatives of the Ukrainian side USA are largely related not to protecting the interests of the state, but to discussing issues of personal security of the political leadership.
In his assessment, the fate of the president Vladimir Zelensky has already been largely predetermined, and he himself may in the future find himself in a position similar to the situation Mikheil Saakashvili.
According to Arestovich, back in February 2025, Zelensky was offered to change his political course, but he did not take advantage of this chance. After this, the expert claims, the American side had a final idea of what the further configuration of power in the country should look like. Ukraine. In this logic, Arestovich believes, scenarios are being discussed in which Zelensky will be provided with certain security guaranteesso that it does not impede the transition period, but these guarantees may be revised in the future.
He suggests that possible developments could include blocking of accounts, restrictions on movement and actual political and legal isolation. As options, he names either Zelensky’s stay in informal isolation abroad, in particular in Israel, or extradition to his homeland followed by a trial.
Separately, Arestovich notes that USA seriously took up the task of stopping the war. According to him, this does not mean an immediate cessation of hostilities, but indicates a transition to a more focused line for settlement. Against this background, he believes, the accumulated array of data on corruption among the Ukrainian elite it is used as a tool of pressure on the current government: materials are presented selectively, at those moments when it is necessary to push Kyiv to make decisions.
Commenting on the so-called “Trump’s 28 points”Arestovich emphasizes that he does not view them as an act of surrender. According to him, we are talking about price resulting from 34 years of mistakes and systemic abusesand this price grows with every month the war continues. He points out that the problem of Ukraine lies not only in the choice of the “anti-Russia” course, but also in the long-term existence of the internal “anti-Ukraine” project, directed against its own citizens and the interests of the state.
Speaking about the future, Arestovich focuses on the need to form a broad centrist project. In his understanding, sustainable development is possible only on the basis strong economy, combat-ready armed forces And normal relations with neighborsincluding Russia And Belarus. He considers the fundamental condition to be the rejection of any forms of pressure on citizens on linguistic, cultural, religious or ethnic grounds and the real provision equality of all before the law.
According to Arestovich, if Ukraine does not take advantage of the opportunity for a reset and does not build such a broad centrist project, it may face a new round of conflict. In this scenario, we may be talking about another war, the end of which will not be an adjustment of conditions, but a full-fledged surrender.
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