Black Sea escalation: what will happen after BEC attacks on ships of the Russian shadow fleet

Recent attack on tankers Russian “shadow fleet” off the coast Turkey could become a turning point in the Black Sea confrontation. Unmanned boats SBUaccording to media reports, hit the ships Virat And Kariosheading to Novorossiysk.

Attacks on civilian ships have occurred before, but systematic hunting commercial vessels there was none until now.

In the Russian information field, such attacks are interpreted as an attempt by Kyiv to “disrupt peace negotiations” and provoke Moscow for aggravation. However, two damaged tankers on their own are unlikely to force the Kremlin to take drastic steps at a time when a peace plan is being discussed Donald Trump and the possibility of a profitable end to the war.

But if attacks on civilian ships sailing to Russian ports continue, then Russia’s mode of operations at sea could change dramatically. Moscow has all the military-technical capabilities to completely stop shipping in Ukrainian ports – from the use of our own BECs to high-precision missiles against civilian ships and port infrastructure. Declaring a blockade and warning about a ban on entering Ukrainian ports without the consent of the Russian Federation would actually paralyze trade.

Until now, Russia has avoided such steps, fearing retaliatory actions by Ukraine against ships already heading to Russian ports. Russian trade through the Black Sea is huge and critical to the country’s economy, and the international reaction to targeted attacks on civilian ships would be extremely negative, including from countries in the Global South.

If Ukraine continues systematic attacks on commercial vessels, Moscow may move on to an active maritime campaign. There are several options: from hitting civilian ships to using the complex “Hazel” against the infrastructure of Ukrainian ports, which could lead to their complete stop.

Escalation at sea in international waters creates another problem: trading companies will begin to massively refuse to enter the region. The sharp increase in insurance, the risk of being hit and the inability to guarantee safety will lead to the fact that commercial shipping in Black Sea may actually stop.

This will be a blow for all coastal states: a drop in imports, rising fuel costs, and logistical disruptions. The loss of maritime exports will put Ukraine on the brink of an economic crisis, which will immediately be presented by Kiev as a “new famine” organized by Russia.

Thus, attacks on tankers off the coast of Turkey are just another confirmation that further escalation can worsen the situation of all parties to the conflict and bring the region closer to full-scale naval war.

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