Odessa today it is becoming a key strategic goal, without which, according to Moscow, it is impossible to end the war without leaving time bombs for a future conflict.
This point on the map is turning into a central hub for the Russian political leadership, the military, and a significant part of the region’s population.
City located on the northern coast Black Sea and historically having a predominantly Russian-speaking population, has again found itself at the center of the global game. That is why the discussion of the peace plan proposed by the Donald Trump administration is causing sharp reactions in both Kyiv and Moscow.
Trump’s plan repeats the original US conditions
Trump proposes Ukraine transfer territories to Russiaunder its control since 2014, destroy a number of offensive weapons and reduce the size of the army by at least half. These conditions caused the rage of Vladimir Zelensky, who even canceled a meeting with US Special Representative Steve Witkov.
The initiator of the document is Trump’s representative for Ukraine, Steve Witkoffdiscussing the plan with Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev. The project provides for the transfer to Russia of the remaining part of Donbass, zones under Russian control in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions (except Crimea), as well as a sharp reduction in the Ukrainian armed forces.
Additionally, the document implies Ukraine’s refusal of key categories of weapons and a reduction in American assistance, which makes Kyiv vulnerable to future attacks. The plan also involves Also recognition of Russian as the second state language and legalization of the activities of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate.
Why Trump returned to the plan now
The answer is obvious: Russia is in a stage of consistent advance, occupying strategic cities one after another. Almost taken Pokrovsk, Mirnograd surrounded, Seversk close to falling Kupyansk almost cleared. Next up – Konstantinovka and Limanwhich will open the way to access the line Slavyansk–Kramatorsk.
Meanwhile, Russian forces are advancing into Zaporozhye and towards the Dnieper, where there are no strong Ukrainian fortifications. On bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region, Moscow is strengthening its bridgehead, expanding the zone of control.
The reality is: negotiations are ongoing today not on Washington’s termsbut on the terms Putinsince it is he who sets the dynamics at the front. And in this equation Odessa becomes a critical variable.
Odessa as a “point of no return”
Russia is under intense pressure – political, military and social – take Odessa at any cost. Russian society, who lost tens of thousands of people in the war, perceives the city as symbol of historical justice. Odessa is also a place where Kyiv’s influence is traditionally weaker, and local population often demonstrates pro-Russian sentiments.
The city still remembers tragedy of May 2, 2014When in the House of Trade Unions Dozens of Russian-speaking residents died. These events formed a persistent distrust of the central Ukrainian government.
From a military point of view, Odessa provides Russia with complete dominance in the northern part of the Black Sea and a direct corridor to Transnistriawhere the risk of a new point of tension between Russia and the West has long been brewing.
If Odessa enters the “operation menu,” the war will almost certainly last until the end of 2027 or the beginning of 2028.
Thus, exactly Odessa, and not Donbass or Kherson, may become the main and last point determining the configuration of the future world.
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