Pierrakakis: Greece’s public debt will fall below 120% of GDP by 2030

Minister of National Economy and Finance Kyriakos Pierrakakis in an interview Bloomberg stated that Greek government debt will fall below the mark 120% GDP even before 2030.

During the conversation from London, he emphasized that the key factor will be the accelerated repayment of memorandum loans.

According to the minister, it is the early repayment of loans of the first memorandumconcluded at the height of the Greek debt crisis, will allow the country to quickly reduce its debt burden. At the same time, Athens continues its course towards fiscal discipline and maintaining sustainable primary surpluses.

Speaking about the economic outlook, Pierrakakis noted: “Greece today is a story of both turnaround and renewal.”. He explained that economic forecasts have already been taken into account in the draft budget, and the final version will be presented to parliament next week.

According to these estimates, GDP growth Greece in 2026 will be 2.4%, which is significantly higher than the average for to the European Union. At the same time, the country plans to maintain primary surplus at 2.8% and achieve the “fastest rate of debt reduction” among states EU.

The Minister also noted the importance of recent decisions of European institutions in the field of energy and customs taxation, emphasizing that the future of the European Union requires collective and operational decisions. He added that the main objective of European policy should be “United Europe with a unified savings and investment market”.

Author’s opinion

The question of whether the Greek population can withstand another five years of the current rate of economic and tax burden remains one of the key questions for assessing the reality of the fiscal targets announced by the government.

From our point of view, the country is indeed capable of going through this period without social or fiscal collapse, but this does not mean that the path will be easy or painless.

The main risk factor is demographic. The working population is declining, young people are leaving, and the shortage of personnel is growing. With such dynamics, any tax burden is distributed less and less evenly, which makes the system less stable.

Fiscal disciplinewhich the government is proud of, relies mainly on those who do not have the opportunity to evade taxes – employees and small businesses. This creates the effect of “hidden pressure”, which accumulates gradually but inevitably.

However, macroeconomic sustainability can survive if two conditions are met: economic growth above 2% annually and an influx of legal labor force trained and integrated into the labor market.

If any of these conditions are violated, the burden becomes unbearable and long-term goals of reducing public debt will be jeopardized.

Thus, the Greek population as a whole will withstand the five-year horizon of current policies, but without an increase in the standard of living (one can rather expect it to decline), public discontent will grow. An economic model based on constant surpluses can only work when society perceives concrete benefits, not just obligations.

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