Greek GDP after 2026: will Greece be able to grow without European subsidies

After completion Recovery Fund The Greek economy risks slowing down: ΙΟΒΕ forecasts GDP growth to fall by 1% over the next five years.

Greece prepares for life after Recovery Fund

When Ταμείο Ανάκαμψης και Ανθεκτικότητας is coming to an end, economists are asking the main question: what will happen to the Greek ΑΕΠ after 2026? Despite the steady growth in recent years, experts ΙΟΒΕ and international organizations are warning that signs of a slowdown are already evident.

According to ΙΟΒΕwithout the support of the fund, growth rates may decline to 1% over the next five years. Institute director, professor Nikos Vettasnotes that to maintain the dynamics, new sources of investment and a transition to the production of products with higher added value are necessary.

Time of change and structural challenges

European Commission forecasts slightly higher growth for Greece’s economy 2% in the period 2025–2027, after which a decline below 2% is expected due to demographic aging And low efficiency of the labor market. A similar assessment is given by OECDindicating that the effect of RRF will be difficult to make up for with new initiatives.

Chapter Bank of Greece Yiannis Stounaras also emphasized the need to maintain investment flow and increase productivity. Without this, he said, growth risks “returning to pre-crisis levels.”

Investments and the risk of a “hard landing”

According to the forecast ΙΟΒΕinvestments in 2025 will increase by 7.5%and in 2026 – to 10%which is associated with the final stage of the fund’s programs. However, after 2026, the dynamics may weaken sharply. Economists warn that the country needs a transition to new production modelbased on technology, innovation and sustainable growth.

Recovery Fund Legacy

According to Capital Economicsprogram contribution Next Generation EU (NGEU) added Greece to 1.5% GDP growth for six years. These funds have become a powerful incentive for the digital and green transformation of the economy. In total, the NGEU mobilized about 725 billion euros – almost 4% of GDP EU.

Although the program will end in 2026, analysts expect its effects to continue to be felt later, preventing a “sharp slowdown” in investment activity. However, without thoughtful national reforms, the Greek economy could again face problems reminiscent of the years after the crisis of the 2010s.

So, the main challenge of the next decade is to transform temporary infusions V long-term sustainability. The recovery fund was the impetus. The future will show whether it has become the foundation.

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