“One step forward, two steps back”: how Trump maneuvers between sanctions, China and the war in Ukraine

After high-profile sanctions against “Rosneft” And “Lukoil” Donald Trump had a meeting with Xi Jinpingbut instead of increasing pressure on Moscow, the White House again changed its tone.

Last week was a turning point in American politics: Donald Trump for the first time since returning to the White House, he introduced sanctions against Russia, and then held a meeting with Xi Jinpingwhere the issue was expected to be discussed Russian oil. But instead of increasing pressure on Moscow, the US President’s rhetoric changed again.

The largest oil companies came under restrictions – “Rosneft” And “Lukoil”. However, experts note that these sanctions were not a blow to the Russian fuel sector. Similar measures were previously introduced against “Surgutneftegaz” And Gazprom Neft — companies incurred costs to circumvent restrictions and discounts for buyers, but exports did not stop. It is expected that the new sanctions will only lead to a short-term pause in supplies, after which trade will continue under new patterns.

A much more serious step would be secondary sanctions — tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, which would hit China And India. However, the White House did not dare to take this step: duties have not been introduced and are almost not discussed. Myself Trump after meeting with Xi Jinping stated that they “did not discuss oil,” limiting themselves to general discussions about “how to end the war in Ukraine.”

At the same time, news appeared about the reduction of American troops in Eastern Europe and refusal to transfer missiles to Kyiv “Tomahawk”. This caused a stormy reaction in Western media, which accused Trump of “turning his back on Ukraine.”

In fact, as analysts note, this is not about a change of course, but about Trump’s characteristic political “swing tactics”. The US President hesitates between three strategies, each of which carries risks:

• First option – increase pressure on Putin: give Ukraine new weapons, introduce duties against buyers of Russian oil. But this threatens escalation and even nuclear confrontation – Moscow has already conducted tests “Petrel” And “Poseidon” in response to such statements.
• Second option – put pressure on Zelenskyso that Kyiv accepts the Kremlin’s conditions. This is possible, but extremely unpopular both within the US and in Europe.
• Third option — step aside, reducing US military and political involvement in the conflict. In fact, this is precisely the path that Trump is taking, having refused free arms supplies to Kyiv.

The problem is that all three scenarios are equally risky: the first is fraught with war, the second with a political crisis, and the third with loss of influence in Europe. Therefore, the White House operates on the principle of “one step forward, two steps back,” testing the reactions of allies and adversaries. Bye Trump waits for the moment when external circumstances – from the front-line situation to positions China — will allow you to make a decisive choice without losing political capital.

Meanwhile, the world is watching Washington is once again balancing between sanctions and negotiations, and “Trumpism” is turning US foreign policy into a series of oscillations between threats and rollbacks. All this makes the international situation even less predictable, especially for Moscow, Kyiv And Beijing.

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