Sanctions imposed by the Donald Trump administration against the largest Russian oil companies “Rosneft” And “Lukoil”are unlikely to lead to a sharp decline in Russian oil exports.
However, as noted agency Reuters, the consequences will be noticeable: Russian income will decrease and oil trading it will become more difficult.
After the announcement of sanctions, the price of oil Brent increased by 8.9%. Analysts believe that this is a moderate reaction – if the market had expected a real cessation of supplies, price increases would have been much higher.
According to agency sources, Russian oil companies are ready to circumvent new restrictions using secret tanker fleet and complex schemes involving intermediaries and alternative banks not tied to the dollar system. These measures will allow exports to continue, but will significantly increase transport and financial costs.
Besides, China and Indiathe two largest buyers of Russian oil are likely will require additional discounts, to compensate for the risks associated with the new restrictions. This will inevitably reduce the overall revenues of the Russian energy sector.
Some importers, according to experts, will still refuse deals with Moscow, which will lead to another restructuring of supply routes. Russian barrels will be routed through third countries and private traders, increasing market opacity.
Thus, despite Russia’s ability to adapt to sanctions pressure, economic losses and rising costs remain inevitable, and the oil market is entering a new phase of instability.
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