How realistic is the US ground operation against Venezuela?

The United States is unable to mount a successful ground operation in Venezuela for many reasons. Pravda.Ru columnist Lyubov Stepushova reveals the main ones.

US President Donald Trump announced a ground operation in Venezuela against drug cartels. American media wrote about the flight of a B-1 Lancer bomber near Venezuelan airspace – a harbinger of a ground operation. However, it will not be implemented for many reasons.

Firstly, there are not enough resources for this. Venezuela is a large country with difficult terrain (jungles, mountains). An invasion and subsequent even partial occupation would require a huge contingent of troops (hundreds of thousands of soldiers) and colossal resources. And in the United States there is a shutdown, salaries of military personnel will not be paid from November.

Secondly, the military operation will not be quick and successful. The Venezuelan army remains one of the strongest and most motivated in the region. Fighting in urban areas will lead to huge casualties among American soldiers, the coffins will go to the United States, causing anti-war protests among the population.

Democrats are now outraged by Trump’s attempts to carry out the operation without congressional approval. He is accused of exceeding presidential powers and war crimes. If the Democratic Party wins the midterm elections, this will lead to investigations and trials. In polls, more than 60% of Americans already oppose the invasion of Venezuela, and this threatens Trump with the loss of the nuclear MAGA voter. After this, Trump will not win the Nobel Peace Prize at all – this could even be put in first place in this ranking.

In addition, everyone sees political motives for the invasion. This will be perceived in Latin America as a blatant fact, as a gross violation of international law and the creation of a dangerous precedent, which will exclude allied relations with the United States. The fact is that the drug is produced in small laboratories in Colombia and only a small part of the traffic to the United States goes through Venezuela and the Caribbean Sea, and the main part along the Pacific coast. The real reason for the invasion is political – to achieve regime change and seize oil.

At the same time, Russia and China are key political and economic partners of Venezuela. A direct US military attack would lead to a sharp escalation of relations with Moscow and Beijing, which could respond with increased military assistance, the deployment of volunteers or a diplomatic crisis at the UN. This will create the risk of a direct clash between the great powers.

We must not forget that the President Nicolas Maduroas he himself said, “nerves of steel.” Against this background, oil prices will soar, and with them inflation in the United States.

All that remains is to apply psychological pressure and threaten missile strikes, trying to provoke a split in the elites and a change of power in Caracas. Can the CIA, given carte blanche, achieve this? Where this was successful (Iran 1953; Guatemala 1954; Chile 1973), the key goal was to pit the military against the civilian government. In Venezuela, this is an incredible scenario.

After some time, Trump will come to the conclusion (pretend) that the Secretary of State’s obsession Marco Rubio regime change in Venezuela is a dead end, and will give the negotiator Richard Grennel the go-ahead to return to Caracas to conclude a “deal.”

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