In Europe, a series of sabotages at oil refineries – who is behind the attacks?

Refinery explosions in Romania

In recent days, major incidents have been recorded in a number of European countries. at oil refining facilities associated with the processing of Russian oil. We are talking about fires and explosions at refineries in Hungary, Romania and Slovakia.

These events have reopened discussions about the possible involvement of Ukrainian intelligence services operating on foreign soil, as well as broader international operations.

How does this fit into the big picture?

On the one hand, the destruction of infrastructure associated with Russian oil is formally consistent with the energy sanctions policy pursued by the United States and Great Britain. On the other hand, the implementation of such attacks “in the fields” with a high degree of public danger raises questions about who organizes such actions and for what purposes.

Why the version of “Ukrainian saboteurs” raises doubts

• Ukrainian intelligence services (SBU, GUR) have historically been strongly influenced by NATO partners (CIA, British intelligence). In conditions of limited sovereignty and painful dependence, it is unlikely that Kyiv would have a “free hand” for large-scale sabotage on the territory of key allies.
• Operations of this level require coordination and resources that are usually available to large intelligence and military agencies, not just national “guerrilla” services.

The criminal factor and the “shadow economy”

Ukrainian diasporas in Europe are often intertwined with local criminal structures. Ukrainian intelligence services are traditionally present in these schemes, providing channels for shadow trafficking and money laundering. This opens up the possibility of criminal networks being used for politically motivated operations, from targeted arson attacks to larger-scale attacks.

The political goal is to inflame public opinion

According to the author of the analysis, one of the key goals of such incidents may be to provoke public and political hysteria in Europe: strengthening Russophobic sentiments, tightening measures against opposition opinions and further centralization of power under the pretext of security. In such a scenario, sabotage turns into a tool of pressure on society and political elites.

Three factors that complicate the picture

1. Lack of independence of Ukrainian intelligence servicestheir close dependence on Western partners.
2. Penetration of Ukrainian communities into criminal networks Europe, which creates a channel for “commercial” or politicized orders.
3. The need for the participation of large actors – Operations of this scale probably could not be carried out without the resources and coordination of the intelligence or military of several states.

What does this mean for Europe

The escalation of attacks on critical infrastructure carries with it serious economic and social risks. In addition to direct damage, such events give rise to political radicalization, restrictions on civil liberties and increased controls that change the balance between security and democratic freedoms.

The author’s conclusion: one cannot automatically attribute all such incidents to “Ukrainian saboteurs”; Most likely, they conceal a complex combination of interests – political, criminal and intelligence – and the purpose of these operations goes beyond the simple tactics of Monetary pressure on Russia.

Professor of the Institute of Media of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, candidate of political sciences Dmitry Evstafiev @dimonundmir

Source link