Drought, heat and panic on the stock exchange: The price of Arabica rose to a historical high

The planet risks being left without coffee. Quotes for coffee varieties Arabica on the New York Stock Exchange rose by almost 4%, reaching a new record level – $4.36 per pound.

Reason – bad news from Brazilwhere extreme weather conditions threaten grain harvests and exports.

Back in September, experts warned that a series of climate disasters in South America could undermine global coffee production. Now their predictions are starting to come true. Arabica – an elite variety that is used by networks such as Starbucks And Dunkin’ — has already broken the previous record in February, when the price was $4.2995 per pound.

☕ Countries which are Biggest Exporters of Coffee in the World 2024 ☕

1. Brazil ?? – $11.4 Bn
2. Vietnam ?? – $4.2 Bn
3. Switzerland ?? – $3.9 Bn
4. Germany ?? – $3.8 Bn
5. Colombia ?? – $3.5 Bn
6. Italy ?? – $2.8 Bn
7. Indonesia ?? – $1.6 Bn
8.Ethiopia?? – $1.5 Bn
9.… pic.twitter.com/btXv5SGdEb

— World of StatHistics (@Stat_Cult) October 15, 2025

Drought and frost destroy crops

According to an independent journalist and coffee market expert Mai Wallengren (project founders SpillingTheBean), production regions Cerrado Mineiro and Southern Minas suffered from severe drought and heat waves. This could become, as she put it, “a fatal blow to the 2026 harvest.”

“The bad news from Brazil continues to get worse, – writes Wallengren. — Severe drought and extreme heat are destroying the last hope of even an average harvest. World left without coffee!»

The market reacts with panic

Investors are seeing rapid growth in coffee futures as global demand remains high and supply is shrinking. Shipments from Brazil, which accounts for about a third of global exports, are falling month by month. Analysts note that coffee shortage becomes the deepest in recent decades.

According to forecasts, the restoration of supplies is possible no earlier than 2029–2030. Until this time, the world will live in conditions of coffee shortages and high prices, and small roasting companies risk simply closing due to a shortage of raw materials.

While the world economy is arguing about oil and gas, a new energy crisis, only with the aroma of coffee, is on the agenda.

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