NATO countries want to change the rules to shoot down Russian fighters

On Friday Three Russian MiG-31, according to Tallinnwere in the airspace of Estonia for about 12 minutes, after which they were intercepted by the NATO duty pair-among them the Italian F-35 from the mission of the enhanced patrol of the Baltic.

Earlier in September, the Polish media reported the entry of Russian UAVs to the territory of Poland: at least three devices were shot down after the departure of the Polish F-16 and the Dutch F-35.

The ambassadors of the alliance countries made a joint warning:

“Russia should have no doubt. NATO and allies, in accordance with international law, use all the necessary military and non -literary means for self -defense. ”

Moscow insists that there were no violationsnotes Politico. Meanwhile, a number of capitals – from Warsaw to Stockholm – openly declare their readiness to knock down any Russian air goals at the entrance to their airy scope.

1) how NATO solves the issue of using force

The rules for applying force (ROE) are classified and set the “corridor” of permissible actions for a specific mission. The basic political guideline is unchanged: NATO is a defensive union, the purpose of which is to restrain and prevent conflict; If this does not succeed, the defense and reflection of aggression.

ROE approves the North Atlantic Council (NAC), is performed by the Supreme Commander -in -Chief of the NATO OTS in Europe (Saceur) General Aleksus Grinkevich. Like any solution of the alliance, ROE require consensus.

2) national rules: where is the alliance, and where is the sovereign decision

ROE NATO does not prevent states from acting in their sky under the national command. Lithuania has already simplified the order of immediate reaction to violations, Romania makes similar decisions to the Higher Council of Defense due to regular lifting of Russian drones.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk emphasized the risk of escalation at the “solo-solutions” and the need for the consistent position of the allies: before shooting Russian aircraft, Warsaw should be sure that “there will be no left alone.”

3) Why MiG-31 not knocked over Estonia

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that “There was no direct threat”requiring fire to defeat. Estonian Prime Minister Christien Michal added: the decision on weapons is always multifactorial, in this episode the threshold was not passed. Former Estonian Air Force commander Yak Tarien recalled: in peacetime, they come from the probability of error, not an intentional attack.

Ukrainian analyst Nikolai Belyeskov also indicates a political factor: the uncertainty of the US position under Donald Trump makes European capitals even more careful – “No one will begin the third world due to one episode”.

4) Will the rules tighten

Inside the alliance, a request for a rigid response when repeating the incident intensifies. Czech President Pyotr Paul directly said about the need “Until the destruction of Russian aircraft”. In the fields of the UN General Assembly, the US President, answering the question, admitted that the allies can bring down violators; Polish Foreign Minister Radoslav Sikorsky reacted short “Understood”.

5) How ROE change in practice

Formal changes pass through the NAC, but after February 24, 2022, Saceur received expanded powers for operational adjustments without a separate decision of the Council (for example, the transfer of additional ships and aircraft to vulnerable areas).

6) precedent of 2015

In November 2015, Türkiye, under the national command, shot down the Russian Su-24M near the border with Syria after a 17-second entry into its sky and multiple warnings. This was not NATO operation, but Ankara quickly involved consultations under Article 4 and received an increase in AWACS. Moscow’s response included sanctions; Later Recep Tayyip Erdogan apologized.

Result. The alliance balances between the deterrence and control of the escalation. The political will to a more tough reaction is growing, but “The right of the first shot” It will still depend on a specific tactical picture, national decisions and consistency in NAC. The next incident can become a test not only for ROE, but also for the political unity of NATO.

Source link