Bloomberg: India does not curl up oil import from the Russian Federation, despite negotiations with the United States

Bloomberg reports: India does not close the door for Russian oil. Deliveries will continue November – DecemberAlthough volumes can be lower than peaks of recent years. August subsidence up to ~1 million b/s It turned out to be temporary: season Mussonov retreated, the refinery is returning to the load.

What is happening on the market

After the introduction duties team Donald Trump and a series of UAV attacks on Russian infrastructure, flows in India in early August were minimized in almost two years – about 1 million barrels per day. Now, by sources, demand Restoresand contracts for November -December The traders live their usual life.

Politics VS Economics

Yes, they go Trade negotiations Trump and Narendra Modi. But the sources assure: neither large state nor private Refinery They did not receive orders Cut off imports or change the procurement schemes. Transferring from diplomatic to human: while New Delhi believes that Cheap oil More important than other people’s “red lines”.

Europe plays sanctions

Against this background European Commission I presented it 19th package of sanctions against Russia. He includes:

• a ban on the import of Russian LNG by 2027;
• sanctions against 118 ships from the “shadow fleet”;
• Payment for a payment system “World”;
• Reducing the price ceiling for oil to 47.6 dollars per barrel;
• new restrictions on the export of technology and ores;
• Measures against cryptocurrency platforms.

It sounds menacing, but the paradox is that for now EU Composes the next packagesIndia and other Asian giants continue to download Russian oil – only with a discount and through new routes.

Who lost?

The result is obvious:

• Russia Loses part of the income, but finds buyers in Asia.
• India And China They win by purchasing energy resources at a price cheaper than market.
• EU He pays more for LNG and is forced to subsidize his own energy.
• USA Balancing: sanctions work partially, and trade with Modi requires compromises.

Final

In a large game of sanctions and oil, the one who believes in slogans, and not in mathematics, loses. Europe – with record prices and dependence on LNG. India – with cheap oil and growing economy. Russia – with a smaller margin, but stable sales. So, the whole “sanctions storm” turned into the fact that EU lost more than Moscow and New Delhi.

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