Trump is again in threat mode: duties, sanctions and ultimatums

Donald Trump He again went to the public with a series of high -profile statements about the war, sanctions and allies. His words instantly hit the markets and launched an increase in oil and gas prices.

Donald Trump issued another stream of statements that relate to war, negotiations, sanctions and energy. His words immediately reflected in the oil and gas markets, causing a rise in prices.

• “Ten days – and then we will introduce duties and other measures. Although I do not know if this will affect Russia because he [Путин]Obviously, he wants to continue the war ”;
• About negotiations: “It would be easy to agree. Although it is for a long time ”;
• “I think I’ll move the deadline, because it makes no sense to wait for so long. This is a deadline. And after it we either impose sanctions, or tariffs, or something else ”;
• “Now the European Union will take on all the payments that we made before. We gave hundreds of billions of dollars. We gave Ukraine 350 billion dollars. And we are on this side of the ocean. This is not even our war. But through Biden they received 350 billion. And now I think: where did all this go? Probably everything went to the weapon. And Europe gave 100 billion, we gave 350. And, in truth, it should have been the other way around. But now NATO will pay 100% of the cost of all weapons and the rest. So NATO will distribute weapons and pay for it ”;
• Trump said he had not received any response from Putin to reduce the term of the ultimatum: “This is a shame”;
• About sanctions and oil market: “I’m not worried about it. We have so many oil in our country. We will simply increase the production even more. Now oil is already quite cheap. We will increase the volumes even more. ”

July 28, Trump Turned on the pressure mode: threats with tariffs and sanctions, ultimatums in negotiations, reproaches of NATO and Europe. Against the backdrop of his statements, oil went up, and Washington and Beijing, meanwhile, agreed to extend for 90 days a truce in the tariff war. How to combine it with one hundred percent tariffs in ten days is an open question.

Four scenarios that count everything – both in the Kremlin and in the White House

1. China refuses Russian oil and gas. Moscow agrees to a truce. Behind the scenes there is a bargain – concessions in exchange for de -escalation.
2. China is obeying, but Russia continues the war. The Russian economy goes into the “military regime”, a sharp cutting of social and civil costs begins.
3. The Kremlin considers sanctions a declaration of war. The answer follows with the “threat of nuclear strike on the United States, if the sanctions are not canceled.”
4. China ignores Washington. In response, Beijing introduces duties on American goods, and other countries join it. The losses of Russia are minimal, the war continues.

Trump does not bluff?

Tighting ultimatum is not just emotions. Something more could happen behind the scenes: a trading transaction with the European Union, an obligation to purchase American energy resources, possible agreements with Saudi Arabia to increase production and India – to refuse Russian oil. That is why Secondary sanctions for the first time look realistic. And that is why the Kremlin, apparently, sharply activated contacts with Beijing.

Snowing after 10 days?

Trump’s words are without exaggeration, The most tough rhetoric since the Caribbean crisis. While the diplomatic watches are ticking, Moscow pretends not to hear. And the world – for the umpteenth time – held his breath.

The irony is that this ultimatum sounded in Scotland-a country where the first chess parties in Europe once began. Today the board is the same, but the bets are incomparably higher. The United States seems to be seriously ready to sacrifice world trade, and possibly go even further, just to force Moscow to retreat. Question: Will China pull the role of the “resolving king”?

In the meantime, Trump continues to talk about Russia with love. And Moscow is silent, and waits until the denouement comes in Kyiv.

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