Iran and Israel defeated each other

The war of Iran and Israel is over. Iran lost the air defense, Israel – infallibility. Both countries celebrate victory, who actually won?

The conflict between Iran and Israel is completed. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu He said that Iran no longer has nuclear potential. However, the Israeli air defense system has also lost its reputation “Impenetrable”.

Briefly:

1. Iran lost the air defense He carried the damage both in infrastructure and in team and scientific personnel. Nevertheless, the country retained political stability and regime. Iran answered with missile blows, causing damage exceeding Israeli's expectations.
2. Israel has achieved some tactical successes, but not strategic: it was not possible to involve USAeliminate all Iranian leaders or provoke a political crisis. Part of the nuclear capacities of Iran was destroyed, although the country was already far from the creation of nuclear weapons – this is just an excuse.
3. Both sides showed an unwillingness to long military operations. Israel showed again Dependence on American supplies of anti -missiles, air bombs and cruise missiles. Iran realized the risks of balancing with the West and intends to deepen military-technical cooperation with RF. The decision to transfer drones and technologies in 2022 saved Iran, especially thanks Help with hypersonic developments. Now Iran needs S-400which will require significant concessions of Russia. An alternative is China, which put a large batch of components for missiles in Iran. However, China is afraid of pressure Trump And it may turn out to be an unreliable partner, leaving Iran with nothing.
4. Donald Trump confirmed Unwillingness to start a war with Iran. He adheres to intimidation strategies using the force for benefits in negotiations. Iran did not see the reasons for fear, because Trump is afraid of Iranian hypersonic. WITH RF He tried the same, but looks comical: after gross failures, he speaks of “good conversations” and the world, and after five minutes he threatens – and so in a circle. Trump proved the fidelity of the strategy “Encouraging of air”Which is probably disappointed with Israel.

Last weekend USA entered into a military conflict between Israel And Iran. American troops struck the three Iranian nuclear facilities – Fordo, Natanz And Isfahan. Chapter Pentagon Pete Highset said that the United States destroyed the “nuclear ambitions” of the Islamic Republic, destroying its nuclear program. In the evening of June 23 Iran answered an attack on the American air base Al-Udeid V Qatar.

“The current situation resembles the events of 2020. Then Iran, as a response to the murder of General Kasem Suleimani, released missiles on the American base, ”said American Malek Dudakov. – Tehran then notified Washington in advance of his plans. The same thing happened now, with a return attack of the Islamic Republic on the base in Qatar. After such an act, the parties headed for de -escalation. ”

Fedor Lukyanov, editor -in -chief of the journal Russia in Global Policy and the director of scientific work of the Valdai club fund, noted that all participants in the confrontation “skillfully used bright special effects.” “The blows were extremely neat, so as not to provoke either the United States, Iran, or Israel to expand the escalation. And I must admit, the parties withstood the rules of the game “– the analyst emphasized.

“In the end, now each participant can announce a grand victory, which, in fact, they do. The Iranian system survived against the most formidable enemy. Israel solved the issue with Tehran, who supposedly no more nuclear programs. The United States has established the long -awaited world throughout the Middle East “– the expert brought the substantiation of the success of each of the parties.

However, in reality, after a 12-day war, everyone can be considered losers, Dudakov believes. “Iran and Israel suffered serious economic and infrastructure damage. For the United States, the situation is complicated by an internal split. The Republican Party, which led Trump to victory, is falling apart. It has become more difficult for the president to make a big deal in the Middle East than it was before inflicting impacts on Iran. “– the Americanist detailed.

Military expert Alexei Anpilogov noted that actions Israel against Iran From the very beginning were an adventure. “Now this is a dubious business, it seems, it is curling up – and it happens extremely comical”– he pointed out. IN Washington And Tel Aviv They continue to say that the objectives of the operation have been achieved: the nuclear program is allegedly destroyed. However, according to the analyst, this is more like a farce. “In the Magate, they recognized that they do not have information about the whereabouts of significant reserves of the enriched uranium. There are also no evidence of the destruction of underground nuclear complexes “– he explained.

The rhetoric of the American and Israeli sides is explained: the lack of result would provoke an explosion of public indignation. “Therefore, each side is trying to expose itself to the winner. This is in some way an information chewing gum that they are trying to feed the population “– he added.

“The completion of the confrontation meets the interests and Tehran. In Iran, they understand that they will not be able to achieve a quick victory over Israel. It would be about a long and exhausting conflict. Therefore, the leadership of the republic will agree to the cessation of hostilities, but will actually come out of the situation by a moral triumph. “– the expert believes.

However, the Jewish state is not fully satisfied with a truce, since Tel Aviv He did not solve the stated tasks and was losing, added an Israeli expert on international relations and national security Simon Cipis. “The first wants to continue the operation against Iran, and the second opposes this. The ceasefire mode is extremely unstable. Moreover, provocations are possible “– he emphasized.

“The US president believes that he has achieved everything that he planned. In addition, the American side showed the world the possibilities of B-2 bombers and its strength. But Trump is not interested in the war against the Islamic Republic. Therefore, he is trying to force the Israeli prime minister to a truce “– the interlocutor said.

“I repeat, in Israel they are not ready to come to terms with their loss, and therefore, the crisis in the relationship of Trump and Netanyahu will only delve into. The Jewish state will not be able to rectify the situation by striking the enemy. Netanyahu actually fell into a trap. His state of affairs is bad, and events can develop according to the scenario in which he will have to resign “– made a cypis.

According to Dudakov, difficulties with the achievement of the long -term world may arise in future negotiations on a nuclear transaction. “The United States has not changed their position and continue to demand from Iran to stop any enrichment of Uranus, which Tehran is not going to go to. If the White House will conduct a dialogue in the previous format, it will find the same failure as before attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities “– he explained.

According to Anpilogov, the prospects for concluding USA And Iran The agreement on a nuclear transaction is almost zero. “Tehran will probably return to the provisions of the SVPD (a joint comprehensive plan of action), but already with a number of conditions. For example, the authorities of the republic will require the opportunity to carry out deep enrichment of uranium, up to the lower weapons limit – up to about 70%. “– the expert argues.

“The states may be the requirements, but they will rather put the process on the brakes, mourning in diplomatic approvals. And Israel will continue to declare the “threats” emanating from the Islamic Republic ”– the interlocutor predicts. New turns of escalation on The Middle East. But the parties will clearly endure lessons from the current 12-day war. At least three of them.

“The Iranian-Israeli conflict, firstly, confirmed the significance of shock drones, as well as ballistic missiles in operational-strategic effects on the enemy infrastructure. Secondly, these events once again illuminated how important it is to have a powerful air defense system. Finally, countries need to prepare for long military confrontations. If, according to the results of the six -day war, Israel came out of the unconditional winner, now the air blitzkrieg of the Jewish state, although he was a success, but did not lead to significant results ”– concluded Anpilogov.

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