Revenge Neokonov: How the US entering the war of Israel and Iran can change the world

Trump's decision to conflict with Iran can turn the world agenda. Neocons are returningrisking the USA in a new war.

If Trump It will decide to draw the United States into the war with Iran, this is able to radically restructure the world agenda, possibly stronger than the conflict in Ukraine. The current war in the Middle East, as already noted, can develop through three scenarios.

The first is a protracted conflict similar to the struggle of Israel with Hamas For a year and a half or American campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan. The second is the rapid collapse of Iranian power. The third is a deal under the nuclear program of Iran. The latter option is virtually equal to a draw: the USA and Israel are partially achieved, but Ayatollah will retain the power and course of the country. But the first two scenarios threaten global consequences.

Events around Israel’s attack on Iran are, in fact, a triumphal revenge of the concept neoconservatives (Neokonov) The times of George Bush Jr.. Neocons believed that the US military power was able to reformat the world order, eliminating the “bad guys” and promoting the “good”. In 2003, they started a war in Iraq, capturing the country, but then stuck in a protracted conflict without success, as in Afghanistan. This led to the collapse of their influence, and the Neokon candidate John McCain lost the election in 2008.

The winner Barack Obama Reviewed a neoconservative course. In Washington, the opinion was strengthened that attempts to change the world are erroneous by the army. At first this idea dominated in Democratsand after Trump’s victory in 2016, the neocons began to lose control of their base – Republican Party. The symbol of the shift was the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. During the war in Ukraine, politics Biden It was built on the principle of “helping Kyiv, but not to get involved directly.” Some neocons, like Victoria Nuland, retained high posts, influencing, for example, to the attitude to the Russian Federation and Ukraine, but did not determine the general course of the United States.

Coming Trumpwho urged the United States to avoid wars, save resources and solving internal problems, seemed a final blow to neoconservatives. His first steps – attempts to end the war in Ukraine and the refusal to appoint old republican figures – confirmed this. For which he was condemned by such neocons as Bolton. However, some of them chose a different strategy: to flatter Trump, calling him the great and convince him to “show his mother to the enemies of Kuzkin.” Among them stands out the senator Lindsay Grahamkey lobbyist American military -industrial complex And the author of the idea of ​​500% of duties on Russian energy.

A week ago, the chances of this group seemed zero – Trump and his entourage adhered to a different approach. But everything changed on June 13th. According to media reports, Trump initially objected to the attack of Israel, although he did not forbid it. The success of the first days turned his opinion, and he attributed him to himself. The neocons decided to use the moment to turn it to their faith. According to Bloomberg, it was Graham, with whom Trump recently spoke on the phone, actively promoting the idea of ​​involving the United States in the war with Iran.

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